Republicans Boost Spending in Red States Amid Midterm Concerns
GOP groups are pouring cash into traditionally Republican areas as candidates distance themselves from unpopular White House policies and rising inflation.
Republicans are increasing their financial support in reliably red states as they grapple with concerns about their electoral performance in the upcoming midterms. Aligned groups are injecting significant funds into states such as Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa, while candidates are attempting to separate themselves from policies associated with the current administration, which are facing public discontent.
The electorate's dissatisfaction stems from concerns over the president's approval ratings, high fuel prices, and an unpopular war, contributing to a generally glum outlook for the Republican party as the election approaches. Despite possessing substantial financial resources that could influence certain races, the party faces palpable Democratic enthusiasm.
"Everybody is tired. You see the poll numbers. Everybody is cranky about gas prices," said Jeanette Hoffman, a Republican strategist. "The party in power is playing defense. This is a referendum on the incumbents."
Following pressure from candidates in competitive districts, groups associated with former President Donald Trump have begun distributing campaign funds. These groups, along with Republican committees, have amassed considerable wealth, significantly outpacing their Democratic counterparts.
"Republicans have air superiority. House Democrats are scrambling to catch up with the very limited resources they have," stated Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
However, this heightened spending indicates that Republicans are largely in a defensive posture. Since September 1, three Trump-aligned groups—MAGA Inc., No Going Back PAC, and Safety and Affordability PAC—have collectively spent over $163 million on advertising and airtime. According to an analysis of data from AdImpact, which monitors media spending, nearly 40% of this expenditure, exceeding $63 million, has been allocated to states and districts where Trump secured over 10 percentage points in the 2024 election. This includes 12 House districts and three states with significant Senate races.
In Texas, Republican efforts to support Attorney General Ken Paxton in his Senate race against Democratic State Rep. James Talarico have involved nearly $107 million in ad spending and reservations. This figure is nearly four times the amount spent by Democrats in a state Trump won by almost 14 points.
Similarly, in Ohio, Republican spending to support Senator Jon Husted has surpassed $152 million, compared to $90 million for Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown. "Both Republicans and Democrats are kind of sitting on pins and needles because of the national and economic circumstances,” said Terry Casey, an Ohio Republican strategist, noting that outcomes may depend on Democratic voter turnout.
States that Trump won by substantial margins, including Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska, have emerged as key battlegrounds. The White House has also directed attention to states not typically considered competitive, with Vice President JD Vance campaigning for Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas.
Vice President Vance has also visited Iowa, Ohio, Maine, and North Carolina to support Republican candidates, while former President Trump has also been actively campaigning. Concerns are mounting for some Republican candidates, such as those in North Carolina and Georgia, where incumbents face scrutiny over ethics investigations and controversial associations.
"I don’t think anyone’s expecting Collins to win... But it’s just the facts," said Tim Waters, chairman of the Peach County Republican Party, regarding the race in Georgia.
Some Republican candidates are attempting to distance themselves from Trump, even as he encourages his supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot. For example, Representatives Tom Tiffany and John James, nominees for governor in Wisconsin and Michigan respectively, have joined calls to end the war in Iran. Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate nominee in Michigan, released an advertisement criticizing high prices and advocating for the war's swift conclusion.
In Iowa, Representative Ashley Hinson echoed similar sentiments regarding the war's impact on consumer costs. However, she did not join two fellow Iowa Republicans in voting with Democrats on a resolution aimed at limiting the former president's ability to continue military action without congressional approval.
Representative Maria Elvira Salazar, a Republican defending her seat in South Florida, released an advertisement criticizing the former president's immigration policies. Other Republicans, like Byron Donalds, who is running for governor in Florida, have removed prominent references to Trump and his endorsement from their campaign websites.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle asserted that Trump "is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party." Some Republicans acknowledge voter dissatisfaction, with Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio stating, "We shouldn’t say, ‘Hey everything’s perfect,’ because it’s not." Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana noted that Democrats appear to have enthusiasm on their side and that the party needs to be transparent with the public about economic realities.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune offered a measured perspective: "Well, I’m hopeful, obviously, but also realistic. It’s a very competitive environment out there."