Fighting has returned to Ethiopia’s Tigray region, threatening the peace agreement that concluded one of Africa’s deadliest recent wars. The renewed conflict could merge existing disputes in several parts of Ethiopia and potentially draw in neighboring Eritrea.
Federal and Tigrayan forces are accusing each other of restarting hostilities nearly four years after signing the Pretoria peace agreement. Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to the Tigrayan capital of Mekelle after Tigrayan forces seized the airport. Internet disruptions have also been reported across northern Ethiopia, reminiscent of the previous war's isolation of the region.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has formed an alliance with six other opposition groups, including the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army, with the stated goal of removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. While this coalition combines political opposition with a potential military alliance, the coordination and effectiveness of joint military operations among groups with historical grievances and territorial disputes remain uncertain.
The Pretoria agreement, signed in November 2022, ended major fighting but left unresolved disputes concerning territory, security, and accountability. Experts describe the agreement as being "on life support," and a TPLF spokesman has declared it no longer valid. Human Rights Watch has cited ongoing violations, including alleged forced expulsions of ethnic Tigrayans from western Tigray.
Eritrean troops had previously fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces during the Tigray war, but relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have since deteriorated significantly. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting its armed opponents, while Eritrea has accused Ethiopia's government of preparing for war, particularly as Ethiopia seeks greater access to the Red Sea.
The resurgence of fighting carries the risk of spreading across Ethiopia and drawing Eritrea into another conflict, creating a new regional crisis adjacent to the ongoing war in Sudan. The previous war in Tigray resulted in an estimated 500,000 civilian deaths, largely due to famine and the collapse of the healthcare system, and displaced millions. Even after the ceasefire, deaths from hunger were documented in Tigray.
Experts warn that a renewed conflict could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, as transport and communication restrictions could hinder the delivery of essential supplies like food and medicine, while also making it more difficult to document civilian suffering.