Reform UK has once again secured a slim lead in the latest polling, with the YouGov survey showing the party backed by 23 percent of voters, a one-point increase from the previous week. Labour remains at 22 percent. The Conservative Party has seen its support drop two points to 19 percent, while the Green Party holds steady at 12 percent and the Liberal Democrats have gained one point to also reach 12 percent.
This shift follows a period where Labour's poll ratings have reportedly risen since the party selected Andy Burnham as its new leader, a phenomenon referred to as a 'Burnham bounce.' Concurrently, Reform UK's support has experienced an apparent decline in recent weeks, coinciding with scrutiny over its leader Nigel Farage's receipt of a £5 million gift from a cryptocurrency billionaire.
The political landscape also includes a new contender, Restore Britain, led by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe. This party is polling at 4 percent, according to the latest YouGov data. Farage has acknowledged that Restore Britain could potentially harm Reform UK by dividing the right-wing vote in the upcoming general election. He has expressed openness to discussions with Lowe about uniting the right-wing factions, though negotiations remain complex, with Lowe stipulating policy changes such as banning the burqa and halal meat, and excluding former Conservative ministers from future cabinets.
Speculation has arisen in Westminster regarding the possibility of a snap general election later this year, fueled by Labour's improved standing and Reform UK's recent dip. However, Prime Minister Andy Burnham has publicly stated his intention not to call an early election to seek a personal mandate, telling the BBC, "There is no early general election." He has further emphasized, "I’m going to rule it out... I don't think people want it."
The YouGov survey, which interviewed 2,300 British adults between August 2 and August 3, indicates that while all parties remain within the margin of error, the figures reflect a tightening of the voting intention tracker observed over the past month. It has been three weeks since Reform UK last registered a lead outside this margin. Farage noted that Restore Britain, without significant prospects of winning seats beyond Great Yarmouth, could indeed pose a threat by fragmenting voter support. He indicated that potential voters for Restore Britain may soon recognize the impact of such a split.
Farage also clarified that he would not remove key figures like Robert Jenrick, his Treasury spokesman, or Suella Braverman, Reform's education spokesman, from his front bench, despite potential demands from other parties in any negotiation.