Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers is projected to win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award, according to ESPN analyst Seth Walder. This prediction is notable as no tight end has ever received the Associated Press award. Walder's projection suggests Bowers could become the league's premier offensive player, building on his performance after an injury-shortened 2025 season.
Walder's forecast centers on new Raiders coach Klint Kubiak's offensive strategy. "Last year, Klint Kubiak had one clear-cut playmaker who was better than all the rest," Walder wrote, referencing Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 35% target rate with the Seahawks in 2025. Walder anticipates Kubiak will similarly funnel offensive plays through Bowers, who he identifies as the Raiders' clear-cut best receiver. Smith-Njigba's 2025 season, which saw him record 119 catches for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns en route to Offensive Player of the Year honors and a Super Bowl victory for Seattle, serves as a potential blueprint for Bowers' role in Las Vegas.
The Raiders' current wide receiver corps lacks a player with a history of producing 1,000-yard seasons, further incentivizing the team to prioritize Bowers in the passing game. While Tre Tucker and Jalen Nailor are potential emerging threats, neither is seen as an established target who would limit Bowers' opportunities.
Bowers demonstrated his ability to handle a significant target volume during his rookie season in 2024, when he recorded an NFL rookie-record 112 receptions for 1,194 yards and five touchdowns. This occurred despite playing with quarterbacks Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell.
Comparing Bowers' 2024 impact to that season's Offensive Player of the Year, Saquon Barkley, reveals significant value creation. On plays where each player was directly involved as a runner or receiver, Bowers generated approximately 0.57 EPA per play with a 56.3% success rate. Barkley, who rushed for 2,005 yards that season, posted approximately 0.13 EPA per play with a 44.1% success rate. While not a direct comparison of overall value, these metrics highlight Bowers' efficiency when the offense was directed through him.
However, a comparison to Smith-Njigba's 2025 season indicates Bowers may need to surpass his rookie-year performance. Smith-Njigba achieved approximately 0.81 EPA per play with a 63.5% success rate on his direct opportunities, surpassing Bowers' rookie marks and also generating the higher statistical totals often favored in awards races.
With Kubiak's track record of building an offense around an elite pass catcher and the Raiders' upgraded quarterback situation, including veteran Kirk Cousins and top draft pick Fernando Mendoza, Bowers has a clear path to increased opportunities. Walder's prediction hinges on Kubiak leveraging these factors to allow Bowers the chance to achieve historic production for a tight end.