Quebec Election Victory Poses New Challenge for Canadian PM Amid Trump Trade War

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's "Canada Strong" strategy, aimed at uniting and securing the nation amidst an ongoing trade war with the U.S., faces renewed challenges following the separatist Parti Québécois' (PQ) victory in Quebec's provincial election. The win comes just weeks before Alberta is scheduled to vote on its potential secession from Canada.

The PQ has pledged to hold a referendum on Quebec independence. "The courageous battle of Francophones to protect their language and culture will succeed when they have their own country," said Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, Quebec's incoming Premier, during his victory speech. However, Plamondon has stated that no such referendum will be held "as long as Trump is President of the United States," citing the political instability caused by the trade dispute.

Experts note that holding a referendum without a majority in Quebec's National Assembly would be difficult, as the PQ fell five seats short of the 64 needed to form a majority government. "In order to have a referendum, you need to have the question adopted by the National Assembly of Quebec, and Plamondon is not going to have the votes for that," said Stéphane Paquin, a professor at the École nationale d’administration publique. Despite this, the potential for a separatist agenda complicates Carney's efforts to present a unified front.

Carney congratulated Plamondon, emphasizing that "building a stronger Quebec is at the heart of our mission to build a stronger Canada." This follows a period of escalating U.S.-Canada trade tensions, after negotiations collapsed in August. Carney had previously met with provincial and territorial Premiers to strategize, underscoring his view that "Canada is strongest when governments stand together." U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to annex Canada.

Despite the PQ's electoral success, public support for independence in Quebec remains low. Polling by 338Canada in early October indicated that approximately 70% of Quebecers opposed independence. A September poll by Pallas Data-L’Actualité-Qc125 found 64% against holding a third referendum on sovereignty.

Quebec has been particularly affected by U.S. tariffs, facing the highest average effective U.S. tariff rate in Canada at roughly 11%, according to an August analysis by the National Bank of Canada. Provincial data shows significant drops in exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals in 2025, along with declines in autos, chemicals, and plastics.

André Lecours, a professor of political studies at the University of Ottawa, observed that Trump's trade threats influenced the Quebec election, prompting the PQ to commit to holding a referendum only after Trump's departure. "Most Quebecers don't want an independence referendum at this point, anyway, so it helped to make the referendum something distant," Lecours said.

Tensions between Carney and Plamondon are already apparent. Plamondon publicly opposed Carney's decision to match U.S. tariffs "dollar-for-dollar," arguing it harms Quebec's economy. Lecours predicts difficult intergovernmental relations, especially concerning U.S. negotiations, stating, "If there's anything in these negotiations driving towards an agreement that seems to diminish Quebec, its economy, or its sectors, then PQ is going to denounce it." The PQ has also opposed the federal government's proposed high-speed rail project connecting Toronto to Montreal and Quebec City.

Carney is also contending with a separatist movement in Alberta, which is set to hold a referendum on Oct. 19 regarding whether the provincial government should begin the legal process for a separation vote. Polling from September 20 showed 74% of Albertans wish to remain in Canada.

Carney's government has pursued business initiatives in Alberta, including a high-speed rail line between Calgary and Edmonton and the Pacific Link oil pipeline. "That’s the scale of what Alberta and Canada can achieve—and the speed with which we can achieve it–when we work together," Carney stated on Oct. 1, announcing the fast-tracking of the pipeline's approval process. However, experts caution that Carney must balance his approach to Alberta's separatist discontent to avoid negatively influencing Quebec's sentiment.

"If he has a stronger stance against Quebec or a more aggressive approach, then it could lead to more support for Quebec independence," said Paquin, referring to potential comparisons by Quebecers regarding the government's investments in Alberta.