Putin Signals No End to Ukraine War, Doubling Down on Invasion
Despite battlefield losses and economic damage, Russia's president appears committed to continuing the full-scale invasion, with intelligence suggesting a hybrid war against European support for Kyiv.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no indication of halting the war in Ukraine, instead appearing to double down on the invasion despite significant battlefield losses and economic damage to Russia. Putin's recent address to the Russian parliament, which resulted in a State Duma even more aligned with his policies, suggests a claim of a strong mandate, though its purpose remains to be seen.
Sources indicate that Moscow is encouraged by Ukraine's reported shortage of air defense missiles and anticipates that increased Russian strikes this winter will heighten pressure on Ukrainian civilians. Kyiv has voiced difficulties in intercepting Russia's ballistic missiles and new jet-powered drones, which have been consistently targeting the country.
Hybrid Warfare in Europe
Beyond Ukraine, the Kremlin has openly expressed a desire for European nations to reduce their military and financial aid to Kyiv, arguing that such support prolongs the conflict and hinders a Russian victory. Western officials believe Russia is actively employing signals to achieve this, accusing Moscow of escalating a hybrid war against European countries through cyber-attacks, sabotage, and airspace violations.
In response to questions about waging a hybrid war, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suggested that Russia's destruction of Western-supplied drones and missiles used against Russia could be termed as such. However, he stated, "I have no doubt this is a war Europe is waging against us." This reflects Russia's official narrative that the conflict in Ukraine is a European war against Russia, a framing that omits the Kremlin's initiation of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
Escalation and Deterrence
While direct military conflict with a NATO member state appears unlikely given the Russian army's struggles to occupy Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, the intention to intimidate Europe and diminish support for Kyiv is considered plausible. Foreign policy strategist Sergei Karaganov warned that if the "European war" continues with American help, Russia might escalate, potentially using conventional strikes initially, but resorting to nuclear weapons if Europe does not yield. He expressed skepticism that Europe or the United States would retaliate with nuclear weapons in such a scenario.
Karaganov acknowledged significant Russian casualties and security and economic challenges over the past four-and-a-half years but criticized the government for not being aggressive enough. He stated, "But now we are getting rough enough in Ukraine. We're doing away with Ukraine as a viable state," suggesting that Moscow's objective may be to dismantle Ukraine as a sovereign entity, indicating a prolonged conflict.
Russia continues to criticize what it perceives as Western double standards, with Lavrov accusing the West of using "brute force" globally. When questioned about Russia's use of force in Ukraine, Lavrov described it as "brute force to eliminate this direct threat to us," referring to what Russia alleges is a Nazi regime backed by the West. This justification, along with the admission of using "brute force," further indicates Moscow's unwillingness to cease hostilities.