Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval ratings have seen a significant decline, a trend that experts attribute to growing public frustration over the protracted war in Ukraine. Despite the Kremlin's control over polling, recent surveys indicate a notable drop in support for Putin's performance and public trust.
According to the state-run Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), Putin's approval, which previously reached as high as 89% before the invasion of Ukraine, has fallen to approximately 65%. The Public Opinion Foundation, another Kremlin-affiliated pollster, reported a drop in support for Putin's performance from 71% to 66% in July, marking the steepest decline since protests related to Russian conscription in 2022.
Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia Team Lead at the Institute for the Study of War, suggested that the release of these numbers from official sources signals a message to Putin from within the Kremlin. "We’ve seen support for Putin waning, albeit marginally, but it shows that his critical decisions in the war are forcing pollsters to show the active decline," Stepanenko stated. She added that the figures might indicate a deliberate effort by some within the Kremlin to convey that public interest in the war is diminishing.
Beyond general performance ratings, trust in Putin has also reportedly decreased. The latest VTsIOM poll showed trust falling from 76.7% in mid-June to 71%. However, surveys conducted by independent organizations suggest the level of distrust might be considerably higher. An analysis by the Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia in the Krasnodar and Rostov regions found that only 39% and 37% of respondents, respectively, named Putin as the politician they trusted most, figures significantly lower than those reported by state-run pollsters.
The Kremlin's ability to shield its citizens and elites from the war's impacts appears to be diminishing as the conflict enters its fifth year. Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure, including refineries and online retail facilities, are increasing in frequency. These strikes, combined with the effects of Western sanctions, are reportedly causing economic strain and shortages within Russia, according to John Hardie, deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Russia program.
While Putin faces pressure from both the public and economic elites, experts believe these factors are not yet sufficient to threaten his hold on power. "There is a strong desire to end the war, but it’s not likely that this trend will lead to major unrest or a palace coup," Hardie commented. He suggested that Putin is aware of this internal pushback, which may be influencing his cautious approach, such as avoiding a repeat of the widespread mobilization seen in 2022.
However, the ongoing heavy troop losses and the potential need for nationalizing businesses to support the war effort could limit Putin's options. Hardie speculated that Putin might be waiting until after the September elections to announce further mobilization measures. Kaupo Rosin, director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, recently characterized Putin's grip on power as being at its most delicate stage, noting an increase in internal tension within Moscow and a strengthening of voices urging a reconsideration of the current situation.