Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly planning to escalate the conflict in Ukraine and has rejected suggestions of a ceasefire from his advisors, according to sources close to the Kremlin.
The sources suggest a high probability of escalation in the coming months, potentially including new operations in Ukraine or even attacks on other European countries, as Ukraine continues to increase its drone attacks on Russian territory.
One source familiar with Putin's thinking stated that the Russian president has "dug in his heels" with the objective of capturing the remainder of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, a goal that has seen slow progress this year. Putin recently rebuked a group of advisers who proposed a compromise based on a ceasefire along the current front lines, expressing belief that Russia will soon capture Donbas.
This stance contrasts with statements from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who said last week that Putin desired an end to the war and that a resolution was "closer than people realize." Trump held separate calls with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and met with Zelensky at the NATO summit where they discussed "ideas to bring peace closer."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that "Russia is ready for a peaceful resolution but has enough capability to act independently and continue the special military operation." However, a senior Ukrainian official cited intelligence reports indicating Putin was preparing for further military actions rather than peace.
Recent Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on targets including Kyiv have killed dozens of civilians, which Moscow has stated struck military objectives. Putin remarked last week that Ukraine's strikes on energy infrastructure meant Russia would seek to capture more Ukrainian land along the border, beyond Donbas, as a "security zone."
Some Western military analysts believe that to achieve the goal of taking Donbas, Russia might require a mandatory draft of fighting-age men, a politically unpopular move Putin has hesitated to implement. Russian military experts have publicly discussed escalation, including potential strikes on NATO bases in Baltic countries, a move that could risk direct confrontation with the alliance. According to Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute, such actions might aim to sow division within NATO regarding response strategies.
Intensified strikes on Russian oil refineries, ports, and storage depots have caused severe fuel shortages, bringing the war's impact closer to millions of Russians. A recent poll indicated Putin's approval rating, while still high, has reached its lowest point since the war began in 2022.
A former Russian defense ministry official, Andrei Ilnitsky, suggested in a June 29 column that escalation could commence with the destruction of 30 major industrial sites in Ukraine. He also posited that subsequent phases could involve strikes on NATO bases in the Baltic states and Romania, as well as facilities in the European Union producing long-range drones and missiles for Ukraine. Responding to Ilnitsky's column, Peskov stated that Russia must strengthen its own security and cannot ignore the militarization of Europe.
Progress on the battlefield has been slow, with an estimated 1.4 million Russian soldiers killed, wounded, or missing since the full-scale invasion in early 2022. Russia's troops have struggled to advance along the front line as Ukrainian drones counter their numerical advantage. Putin claimed on July 3 that Russian forces had seized Kostiantynivka, a town in the Donetsk region, a claim denied by Ukraine. The following day, during a call with Trump, Putin reportedly asserted that Russia would take the remaining portion of the Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control, viewing control of the region as a matter of principle and a necessary victory.