Vladimir Putin is poised for a potentially devastating miscalculation that could escalate into a third world war and engulf Europe, according to analyst Mark Almond.
Almond cites three key developments as evidence of Russia's preparations for further military action that could inadvertently trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty – the clause stipulating that an attack on one member is an attack on all.
Troop Mobilization and Border Fortification
First, there are credible signs of a significant further mobilization of Russian troops. Ukrainian President Zelensky has warned of a rapid mobilization of approximately 300,000 men. In late August, at least 113,000 Russian citizens reportedly fled the country to Georgia to evade this impending draft. Concurrently, the Kremlin has instructed Army generals to enhance data collection on reservists, and a draft bill proposes fines for Russian companies that fail to support the war effort or impede mobilization.
Second, Russia's Federal Security Service has imposed movement restrictions, including a night-time curfew, in two areas along its border with Estonia, a NATO member. Fortifications are reportedly being erected along the Narva River, which marks the border. Almond suggests this indicates preparations for a land invasion of Estonia, a country with a small population and military force.
The Suwalki Gap and Belarus Drills
Third, Russia's close ally, Belarus, recently conducted a major four-day military exercise near its borders with Poland and Lithuania. These drills occurred near the strategically vital Suwalki Gap, a 25-mile stretch of territory that connects Belarus to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. If Russia were to seize this gap, it would sever the Baltic states' land connection to the rest of Europe, leaving them vulnerable.
Adding to these concerns, Moscow allegedly flew a drone across the Suwalki Gap into Kaliningrad earlier this month, potentially to survey NATO air defenses.
NATO's Response and Deterrence
Almond questions whether these potential incursions would meet the threshold for triggering Article 5 and whether Western Europe possesses the means to prevail in a conflict with Russia. He notes that former U.S. President Donald Trump has historically shown leniency towards Putin and is unlikely to commit American troops to a European escalation, especially over a perceived minor incursion into the Baltics.
French President Macron has been working to build consensus for a plan in the event of war between Europe and Russia, and France is reportedly mobilizing aggressively. However, Almond criticizes Britain for a perceived lack of action on defense spending, despite past commitments.
Hybrid Warfare and Shifting Alliances
Beyond direct military action, Almond acknowledges that a Russian attack could manifest as cyber warfare, state-sponsored terrorism, false flag operations, lawfare, or disinformation campaigns aimed at weakening European alliances. He suggests that these hybrid escalations are the most likely short-term scenario, as Putin may calculate that weakening NATO's resolve is easier than confronting it directly.
The analyst points to the recent success of the AfD party in eastern German local elections as evidence that Western European unity against the Kremlin is not absolute. Almond concludes that Putin is a risk-taker planning his next move after a stalemate in Ukraine, and the potential for a continent-wide conflagration remains.
