Sources close to the Kremlin suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning to escalate the conflict in Ukraine, fearing potential backlash from the Russian public if the war concludes without a clear victory. An insider cited by The Economist reports that Putin believes he could face severe consequences if he fails to achieve at least the minimum objective of capturing the entire Donbas region, reportedly stating, "They will hang me."
The Russian leader has previously accused Ukraine of opening a "Pandora's box" and threatened "blowback on the most sensitive sectors of your economy." In an address to the United Russia party, Putin dismissed suggestions of an impending end to the conflict, stating, "The special military operation continues. We will move only forward."
This alleged decision to escalate may also stem from Putin's perception of weakness in the United States, according to a longtime associate. These claims emerge amidst conflicting accounts of CIA Director John Ratcliffe's recent visit to Russia. One version suggests the visit was to warn Russia against attacking NATO countries, while another indicates Ratcliffe delivered a bleak assessment of Russia's prospects and urged negotiation. U.S. intelligence reportedly indicated that Russia was poised to act after its campaign in Ukraine stalled.
Following Ratcliffe's visit, the Kremlin issued statements suggesting no immediate peace with the West was forthcoming, with one spokesperson warning that "it is too early to say if the deep crisis in US-Russia relations can be overcome," while also claiming "Ukraine is definitely losing the war."
In an effort to counter Western influence, Putin recently attended a two-day summit in Kyrgyzstan with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a regional bloc including China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Central Asian countries, and Belarus. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have previously used SCO summits to promote a multipolar world order and present a united front against the West.
Meanwhile, Russia's defense ministry announced preparations for large-scale attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, characterizing it as a response to ongoing strikes by Kyiv on Russian civilian and energy facilities. Last winter, Russia repeatedly targeted Ukrainian power plants, causing widespread blackouts and plunging millions into darkness.
Escalations in long-range strikes have been observed from both sides, with targets including infrastructure, businesses, and shipping. On Sunday, the Russian army claimed to have struck a plant in Kyiv producing asbestos and cement, used for explosives storage, as well as a drone and munitions manufacturer. The previous day, a Russian strike on an ammunition depot near Kyiv resulted in a large explosion and casualties.
Ukraine has also conducted strikes, including a drone attack on an oil refinery in northwestern Russia. NATO is reportedly facing increased pressure as Russian drones test the defenses of its eastern flank countries, and other European nations are also facing growing threats.
Just last week, Russia issued threats to target British factories in a "semi-military" response to the UK's support for Ukraine. Moscow accused the UK of "participating in this war" following a visit by Prime Minister Andy Burnham to Kyiv. Burnham had announced that European defense firm MBDA would share information on UK components for the long-range Scalp missile, enabling Ukraine to potentially manufacture them locally.
This announcement provoked a strong reaction from Moscow. A senior Putin adviser warned of a more aggressive response, claiming Russia now views the UK as "evil number one." Andrey Fedorov, a former Russian deputy foreign minister, told BBC's Newsnight that Russia's response to Burnham's announcement was "very negative" announcement would involve significant political and public pressure on Putin to take measures against the UK, which is considered a direct participant in the war. Fedorov suggested a new stage of escalation could include "not only verbal but maybe some visible reaction," such as cyberattacks from unofficial sources or targeting "concrete enterprises" involved in producing drones or components for missiles like the Storm Shadow.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed these sentiments, stating that "Britain is participating in this war" and is "methodically and regularly pouring fuel on the fire" while hindering peace progress. He added that Russian forces aim to identify and destroy sites producing such missiles and other military equipment.
Burnham, however, maintained that the UK's support for Ukraine would continue, calling Russia's threats "outrageous."