Proportional Representation Could Lead to Decades of Coalition Governments in UK, Analysis Suggests

Britain may face a prolonged period of coalition governments if the first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system for Westminster elections is replaced, an analysis suggests. The push for electoral reform, championed by figures like Andy Burnham, aims to ensure that "everyone's vote counts and everyone's voice is heard."

Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the formation of a new 'national commission' to examine electoral reform during his Labour conference speech. This move has revived warnings that a multi-party "rainbow coalition," potentially composed of various left-wing or nationalist parties, could come to power.

An examination of general election results since World War II indicates that, had a proportional representation (PR) system been in place, Britain might have lacked a majority government for over half a century. Research from the Electoral Reform Society, using the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system—a form of PR used in Northern Ireland—estimates the likely outcomes of past elections.

According to this analysis, under an STV system, the Labour party would have been 99 seats short of a majority in the 2024 general election, potentially leading to a minority administration supported by the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party. In 2019, the Conservative Party, led by Boris Johnson, would have fallen 18 seats short of a majority, which could have complicated commitments like "Get Brexit Done."

If an STV system had been applied to the 2017 general election, both the Conservatives and Labour would have secured fewer than 300 seats. This scenario might have favored Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister, possibly through a minority Labour government or a coalition with smaller left-wing parties, over Theresa May retaining power.

Similarly, Tony Blair's Labour party might have narrowly missed a majority in the 1997 general election if STV had been used. The research suggests that the last UK majority government elected under STV could have been Harold Wilson's Labour government in 1966.

Under the STV system, voters rank candidates in order of preference in multi-member constituencies. This method aims to elect representatives who align more closely with voter preferences. Candidates must reach a set quota of votes to be elected, with surplus votes transferred to voters' second choices. This contrasts with FPTP, where voters typically choose a single candidate in a single-member constituency.

Despite the analysis highlighting a potential decrease in majority governments under PR, Burnham argued at the Labour conference that the current FPTP system contributes to political turbulence and allows for "divisive" administrations to be elected with a small percentage of the vote.

Burnham called for a "new politics," stating that Westminster often prioritizes "point-scoring over problem-solving." He suggested that changing the electoral system could project confidence and stability internationally. He noted that he is the seventh Prime Minister in ten years and wants to establish a more stable political future.

Starmer, who has not yet called a general election, has bowed to pressure from his party to establish a national commission on electoral reform. He stated that continuing with the current system risks opening the door to a divisive government elected on a minority of the vote. The Labour party conference had previously voted in support of moving towards a PR system in 2022. The party's 2024 manifesto, however, focused on other constitutional changes, such as lowering the voting age and reforming the House of Lords. The commission's work will invite participation from all political parties, with the commitment to contest the next election on a platform of changing the electoral system.