Republican Anthony Constantino, a businessman and vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump, is leading his Democratic opponent Blake Gendebien by 10 percentage points in the election for New York's 21st House District, according to a poll released by J.L. Partners. The survey found Constantino with 50% support compared to Gendebien's 40%, with 10% of likely voters undecided.
When undecided voters were asked about their leanings, Constantino's lead widened to 13 points, with 53% favoring him and 40% supporting Gendebien, leaving 7% undecided. This finding contrasts with a previous poll from News Channel 13/ Survey USA, which showed Gendebien ahead by 4 points.
Pollster James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, suggested that New York's 21st District is not among the vulnerable seats Republicans might face challenges in during the upcoming House elections. The poll, which surveyed 500 voters between August 15-17, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Rep. Elise Stefanik, who has represented the district since 2014, announced in December that she would not seek re-election. More than half of likely voters in the district, 53%, hold a favorable view of Stefanik. The district, which borders Canada, also shows significant disapproval of incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul, with 67% of respondents viewing her job performance negatively.
Constantino, who heads the company Sticker Mule, has been a prominent supporter of Trump, notably displaying a large "Vote for Trump" sign on his company's factory roof. However, his campaign has also faced controversy. The New York State Conservative Party Chairman, Gerard Kassar, has filed a defamation lawsuit against Constantino, alleging that Constantino claimed Kassar threatened his life. The Conservative Party had backed Assemblyman Robert Smullen, who lost to Constantino in the Republican primary.
Gendebien, a dairy farmer and co-owner of Twin Mills Farms, has also drawn criticism for past remarks. In a 2013 interview, he reportedly commented on the perceived work ethic of local residents compared to migrant workers, stating that local hires were "too lazy and too boozed-up to work." He claimed that finding reliable local employees was difficult due to issues such as domestic abuse, alcohol problems, and wage garnishments.
J.L. Partners is noted for its accuracy in past elections, including predicting Donald Trump's victory in the popular vote and Electoral College in the 2024 presidential election against Kamala Harris.