Pro-Life Group Study Finds Abortion Messaging Boosts GOP Senate Candidate in North Carolina

A pro-life advocacy group has launched a ground game in North Carolina, utilizing a voter-contact strategy centered on abortion messaging that a new study suggests is boosting Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley.

The study, commissioned by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, found that highlighting Democratic candidate Roy Cooper's stance on abortion, particularly his support for federal legislation that could override state limits, has moved voters toward Whatley. The organization reports reaching more than 770,000 homes across the state as it targets what is expected to be a highly competitive Senate race.

Canvassers are focusing on persuadable and low-turnout voters with messages about Cooper's past actions, including his veto of North Carolina's 2023 law that banned most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy. Cooper argued the law would harm women and families, but the Republican-controlled General Assembly overrode his veto. The group asserts that Cooper's veto of the 12-week limit was an unpopular move that influences voters.

Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America commissioned Evolving Strategies to conduct a randomized-controlled trial involving 2,607 registered voters in North Carolina. The study tested four distinct abortion-related messages and measured their impact on voter support. Participants were randomly assigned to receive one of the messages or a placebo message.

According to the study, all tested messages showed some effectiveness in shifting the Republican vote margin by a net of 1.7 to nearly 5 points. Messages critical of Cooper's support for federal abortion legislation and his record as governor were found to be the most impactful. The "Fed" message, which criticized Cooper's stance on federal abortion laws, yielded the largest shift, moving the vote margin by 4.9 points. The "Record" message, which focused on his gubernatorial actions regarding abortion, moved the margin by 3.2 points.

The study also explored "Positive" messages highlighting Whatley's pro-life positions. The "Hard Positive" message garnered a 3.9-point shift, while the "Soft Positive" message resulted in a 1.7-point shift.

Researchers estimated that among voters identified as the most persuadable targets, the impact of these messages could be significantly larger, potentially moving the Republican vote margin by 12 points or more. Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America stated that these messages resonate with voters who feel left behind by the Democratic Party, indicating that abortion remains a significant issue in North Carolina politics.