Premium Bond Prize Frequency Varies by Region, Analysis Finds
An in-depth look at National Savings & Investments data reveals significant differences in prize winnings across various UK regions, and even internationally.
Premium Bond holders in certain regions of the United Kingdom, and even overseas, consistently win more prizes than those in other areas, according to an analysis of National Savings & Investments (NS&I) data. Approximately 22 million Britons hold Premium Bonds, hoping to win the top prize of £1 million in monthly draws. The current prize rate for Premium Bonds is an annual 4.35 percent.
NS&I, a government-backed institution, provided data on prizes of £1,000 or more won since January 2023. This analysis considered the total amount of Premium Bonds held in each region and the number of top-tier prizes awarded. For the first time, a definitive list ranks the most and least fortunate areas for Premium Bond holders.
Understanding Prize Probability
The likelihood of winning a Premium Bond prize is directly proportional to the amount held, as each £1 bond has an equal chance of winning. For individuals holding the maximum £50,000, there is a 90.8 percent chance of winning a monthly prize. The odds of winning £1,000 in a monthly draw are one in 138, falling to one in 28,643 for the second-highest prize of £100,000.
Holdings of £30,000 offer a one in 230 chance of winning £1,000 monthly and a 76 percent chance of winning any prize. For £10,000 holdings, the chance of winning £1,000 is one in 690, with a 37.9 percent chance of any prize. Smaller holdings, such as £1,000, face longer odds, with a one in 6,897 chance of winning £1,000 and a one in 22 chance of winning any prize. Those with £100 holdings have a one in 210 chance of winning any prize monthly.
Over a year, a maximum holding of £50,000 has a 99.1 percent chance of yielding a £1,000 return. This probability decreases significantly with smaller holdings, highlighting why it can take decades for smaller amounts to yield any return.
Regional Prize Distribution
While individual luck can vary, the analysis identified Australia as the luckiest region for top-tier prizes. Australian Premium Bond holders, with an average pot of £784, received one £1,000 prize for every £149,864 in collective holdings over the past three years and ten months. In total, 826 top prizes were won by those in Australia.
Wales ranks as the second luckiest region, with a £1,000 prize awarded for every £151,864 in holdings. Following Wales, the South West, South East, East, West Midlands, and East Midlands regions of England make up the next five luckiest areas.
Northern Ireland is eighth, with a £1,000 prize for every £154,813 in holdings. Other overseas locations, including Canada, Ireland, and Jersey, rank ninth, with a prize for every £155,018 held. These regions generally have smaller average holdings compared to the UK.
Least Fortunate Regions
At the other end of the spectrum, Greater London is identified as the unluckiest region for large monthly prizes, with a £1,000 prize awarded for every £175,007 held. Yorkshire and The Humber is the second unluckiest, with a prize for every £165,640 in holdings.
Scotland ranks third from the bottom, with a £1,000 prize for every £155,752 held. The North West and North East regions of England complete the bottom five.
The South East boasts the largest average holdings at £7,528, followed by the South West (£7,441) and the East (£7,248).
Million-Pound Winners
Since January 2023, Hampshire (including the Isle of Wight), London, and Norfolk have each recorded six £1 million winners. Merseyside has had five million-pound winners, while Nottinghamshire, Cumbria, and Hertfordshire have each had four.
Notably, Wales has not had a £1 million winner in this period, despite having over 1.1 million holders. Lancashire also has not seen a millionaire winner since January 2023.
Across Britain, 39 areas have experienced a £1 million jackpot win. Essex saw three millionaires made in 2023, and Hampshire achieved the same in 2024.
Repeat Wins
Analysis of prizes of £1,000 or more paid out since January 2023 shows that just 3.39 percent of holdings have won a four-figure prize twice. The chance of winning £1 million in any given month with a £50,000 holding is one in 1,374,841.
In the past year, 15 out of 24 jackpot winners held approximately £50,000. Despite the odds, there have been instances of small holdings winning substantial prizes, including a £1 million win from a £100 holding in Yorkshire and a £1 million win from a £17 holding in London in 2004.