An early general election would pose a "hell of a risk" for Prime Minister Andy Burnham, according to Luke Tryl, director of More in Common. This assessment comes as recent polling suggests significant voter anger over the government's failure to address welfare spending and the cost of living.
More in Common's research indicates that voters feel last week's budget falls short of Burnham's promises across various issues. On reducing the welfare bill, only 19% believed the budget lived up to the Prime Minister's commitments, while 49% disagreed. Similarly, only 13% felt the budget would end "40 years of neoliberalism," and 24% thought it would improve national defense and security.
The cost of living proved to be another area of concern, with over half of those polled (51%) stating the budget failed to meet promises, compared to 27% who felt it did.
Tryl explained that calling a snap election now could lead to a "significant loss of MPs" and that entering an election as a loser could jeopardize long-term survival prospects. He also questioned the Prime Minister's narrative for a snap election, suggesting that Burnham might need more time to develop plans on issues such as the EU, social care, and electoral reform. "It's quite a big risk to go into an election where you are pledging or look like you're arguing for space to do tax rises," Tryl warned.
Despite Mr. Burnham's repeated denials of planning a snap election, speculation has persisted following the recent budget, which some have dubbed the "do nothing" budget. The Prime Minister has categorically stated he does not plan to call a general election within the next 12 months. However, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch expressed skepticism, suggesting the budget was "all about an election" and that preparations for an earlier vote might be underway.