An early general election would represent a "hell of a risk" for Prime Minister Andy Burnham, according to a leading pollster, as recent polling indicates significant voter dissatisfaction with the government's performance on welfare spending and the cost of living.
Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, warned that the Prime Minister could face a substantial loss of parliamentary seats if an election were called now, even under optimistic scenarios. "Coming out of an election as a loser is never a good thing for your long term survival prospects," Tryl stated.
Research from More in Common suggests voters believe the latest Budget falls short of Burnham's pledges across multiple areas. On the issue of reducing welfare spending, only 19 percent of respondents felt the Budget lived up to the Prime Minister's promises, with 49 percent disagreeing. Furthermore, only 13 percent believed the Budget would "end 40 years of neoliberalism," and just 24 percent thought it would enhance Britain's defense and security.
The poll also revealed dissatisfaction regarding the cost of living, with over half of those surveyed (51 percent) feeling the Budget failed to meet the Prime Minister's promises in this area, compared to 27 percent who believed it did.
Tryl suggested that Burnham might struggle to articulate a compelling case for an early election, given the constraints of the 2024 manifesto. He noted that the Prime Minister would likely need more time to develop plans for issues such as the EU, social care, and electoral reform. "The only thing the PM could plausibly say the manifesto binds him on is tax," Tryl added, cautioning that advocating for tax increases in an election campaign would be a significant risk.
Despite repeated denials from Burnham himself that a snap election is planned, speculation has persisted since the introduction of the "do nothing" Budget. The Prime Minister recently stated, "I don't know how many times I've done this now, but yes, I can rule out calling a general election in the next 12 months." However, other political figures, such as Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, have expressed skepticism, suggesting the Budget's focus was indeed on preparing for an imminent election.