Pollster Argues Voter Turnout, Not Party-Switching, Could Decide 2026 Elections
Traditional focus on swing voters may overlook a more significant trend of voters choosing not to participate at all, according to one analysis.
The outcome of the 2026 elections may hinge less on persuading voters to switch party allegiances and more on whether eligible voters decide to cast a ballot at all, according to political analyst Lee Carter.
In an opinion piece for Fox News, Carter argues that consultants and pollsters have historically focused on the "elusive swing voter" who agonizes over choosing between Republican and Democrat candidates. However, she suggests the more critical question for future elections is whether voters will participate at all.
Data from Pew Research indicates that 12% of voters skipped both the 2020 presidential election and the 2022 midterms. Among these non-voters, Donald Trump secured 14% more of their support in 2024 than President Biden. In contrast, voters who participated in all three elections (2020 presidential, 2022 midterms, and 2024 presidential) were nearly evenly split between Trump and Biden.
Overall, only 41% of eligible voters participated in all three of those elections. Carter contends that millions are being overlooked because they can't be counted on to show up, while campaigns spend vast sums trying to win over a smaller group of undecideds who do vote.
Analysis of the 2022 midterms showed that while Republicans won the House popular vote, only 6% of voters who participated in both 2020 and 2022 switched parties. Instead, Republican success was attributed to higher turnout among their own voters. Seventy-one percent of Trump's 2020 voters returned in 2022, compared to 67% of President Biden's voters.
Carter also points to shifts in voter registration, noting significant Republican gains in states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona since 2018. Despite these registration gains, Democratic supporters reported higher enthusiasm levels in a recent Pew survey, with 63% saying they were extremely motivated to vote, compared to 46% of Republican supporters.
This dynamic highlights the potential for turnout to be a decisive factor. In 2022, despite the highest midterm voter registration rate in decades, fewer eligible Americans voted than in 2018. Carter suggests that the effort required to simply cast a ballot may be a barrier for many.
Key questions for the upcoming elections, according to Carter, include whether previous non-voters will return to the polls, if Trump's 2024 voters will participate in the absence of his name on the ballot, if Democratic enthusiasm will translate into actual votes, and if newly registered Republicans will cast ballots.
While acknowledging that persuasion remains important, Carter posits that the traditional understanding of the "swing voter" needs to be redefined. The critical decision for a growing segment of the electorate may not be between parties, but whether to participate in the electoral process at all.