Zohran Mamdani holds a commanding 15-point lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in a four-way New York City mayoral race and would beat each of his opponents in hypothetical head-to-head matchups, according to an Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll released Wednesday.
The survey found the Democratic nominee, a 33-year-old Queens assemblyman and self-described democratic socialist, capturing 43% support among likely November voters compared with 28% for Cuomo, 10% for GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa and 7% for incumbent Mayor Eric Adams. Nine percent of respondents were undecided.
In one-on-one matchups, Mamdani led Cuomo 47% to 40%, outpaced Adams by 21 points and Sliwa by 24 points, the poll showed. The margin between Mamdani and Cuomo widened among younger voters: Mamdani led by 29 points among those under 50, while he maintained a narrower six-point advantage with voters older than 50.
The survey also found Mamdani enjoyed higher favorability and stronger voter commitment than his rivals. Forty-eight percent of voters expressed a favorable view of Mamdani and 34% unfavorable; by contrast, 51% had an unfavorable view of Cuomo, 61% held an unfavorable view of Adams and 45% viewed Sliwa unfavorably. Among respondents who said they were "very likely" to vote in November, 46% supported Mamdani and 27% backed Cuomo. Some 85% of Mamdani supporters said they would "definitely" vote for him.
Cuomo has argued that his comparatively stronger showing in hypothetical two-way matchups should persuade Adams and Sliwa to exit the race to avoid splitting the anti-Mamdani vote. Both Adams and Sliwa, who are running as independents, have said they do not plan to drop out. Media reports and political operatives have speculated about offers and negotiations involving Adams, and some reports have suggested former President Donald Trump has sought to influence the field to produce a one-on-one matchup that could boost the Republican nominee's chances.
On policy questions included in the poll, two-thirds of respondents, 66%, supported a hypothetical 2% tax increase on those earning more than $1 million a year; 18% opposed it. Mamdani has proposed such a levy to fund free child care and expanded bus fare programs, policies that drew 81% support from his backers and 56% support from Cuomo supporters in the survey. Voters ranked the economy (27%) and perceived threats to democracy (25%) as the top issues facing the nation, followed by health care, crime, housing affordability and immigration.
Public safety remained a salient concern: 42% of respondents said community safety was no different than four years ago, 39% said it was less safe and 19% said it was more safe. A majority of survey respondents said their family finances were worse or the same compared with a year earlier.
The Emerson College poll interviewed 600 registered New York City voters Sept. 7–8 by text, automated landline calls and an online panel conducted by market-research firm Cint. The reported margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
The results mirror a separate Siena Research/New York Times poll released earlier this week that also showed Mamdani leading in a two-candidate matchup. The findings underscore a volatile race in which voter enthusiasm, candidate favorability and strategic decisions by Adams and Sliwa could shape the November outcome.