A new Siena Research/New York Times poll released Tuesday finds progressive candidate Zohran Mamdani would defeat former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in a hypothetical one-on-one general election for New York City mayor, even if Mayor Eric Adams and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa were no longer on the ballot.
In the two-person scenario, Mamdani led Cuomo 48% to 44%, the survey showed. In a four-way matchup, the poll presented an even stronger showing for Mamdani, with him ahead by a wide margin while Cuomo trailed, Sliwa placed third and Adams failed to break double digits.
Don Levy, director of Siena Research, said the key variable in the race is whether Adams and Sliwa remain in contention. "The big ‘if’ is what would happen if both Sliwa and Adams were to drop out of the race and make it a two-person showdown," Levy said. "Cuomo would capture the vast majority of both Adams’ and Sliwa’s current support and win a majority of voters over forty-five. At present, Cuomo would need both Adams and Sliwa to drop out in order to close the gap."
The four-way numbers in the poll showed Mamdani with a commanding advantage among younger voters and on economic issues, according to Siena. The survey tabulated Mamdani at about 46% in the multi-candidate matchup, Cuomo at roughly 24%, Sliwa at 15% and Adams at 9%. The poll also found Mamdani’s favorability climbed to around 52%.
Mamdani, a state assemblyman and self-described democratic socialist, has attracted attention and support from younger voters and those prioritizing cost-of-living and housing concerns. The poll indicated that his lead among under-45 voters is substantial enough that he could sustain a path to victory even if older voters coalesced behind Cuomo in a narrowed field.
Sliwa has repeatedly said he intends to remain in the race. Adams, by contrast, has been the subject of media reports that he has discussed the possibility of a federal appointment, and some White House officials have been reported to be exploring options that could provide him an exit from the mayoral contest. Neither Adams nor Sliwa has formally withdrawn.
Cuomo, the two-term former governor who resigned in 2021 amid ethics controversies, has sought to rehabilitate his political standing and has launched a bid for the city’s top office. The poll’s results underscore the challenge he faces in translating name recognition and support among older voters into a winning coalition citywide.
The survey suggests demographic and generational divides are central to the contest. Levy said voters 45 and older were roughly split between Cuomo and Mamdani in the four-way scenario, while Mamdani enjoyed overwhelming margins among younger voters. That dynamic left the outcome contingent on whether centrist or conservative voters consolidate behind a single opponent.
Political analysts cautioned that polls are snapshots in time and that much can change before the general election. Factors that could reshape the field include campaign developments, endorsements, debate performances, fundraising shifts and any decisions by prominent figures to enter or exit the race. Siena’s findings, however, highlight Mamdani’s current momentum and the potential fragility of Cuomo’s position if the contest narrows.
The mayoral contest remains competitive and fluid. Campaign strategists for the principal campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the poll. The results add to a growing body of polling and reporting suggesting that unconventional candidates with strong appeal to younger voters can be competitive in citywide races, particularly when established figures face lingering political baggage or fragmented opposition.
Siena Research did not release the full cross-tabs in the summary cited, but the poll’s topline numbers and Levy’s analysis indicate that the trajectory of the race will be shaped by whether the field remains divided and whether Mamdani can maintain his strength with young and economically focused voters. If Adams and Sliwa stay in, the poll suggests Mamdani would be favored in the current alignment; if they were to withdraw and their supporters move en masse to Cuomo, the dynamics could narrow but not necessarily reverse Mamdani’s edge.
The mayoral primary calendar and general election timetable mean campaigns have months to alter voter views. For now, the Siena/New York Times snapshot positions Mamdani as a leading contender and frames a potential one-on-one matchup with Cuomo as a test of generational and ideological appeal in New York City politics.