A new YouGov/Barn Cymru poll for ITV Wales shows Labour trailing Plaid Cymru and Nigel Farage's Reform party in voting intention for next May's Senedd election, raising the prospect that Labour could lose the First Minister post it has held since devolution.
The survey put Plaid on 30% and Reform on 29%, with Labour at 14% and the Conservatives at 11%. Under the Senedd's reformed electoral system and after the assembly was expanded from 60 to 96 members, the poll's projection suggested Labour could fall from 29 members to about 11, with Plaid on 38 and Reform on 37—leaving no single party with an outright majority.
The figures signal an unusual challenge for the UK government at a politically sensitive moment. Dr. Jac Larner of Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre told ITV Wales that Reform's rise has been driven largely by Conservative defections and that Labour is losing voters to Plaid, the Greens and, to a lesser extent, Reform. "While Reform isn't capturing the bulk of Labour's lost support, even these smaller defections are contributing to Labour's decline," Larner said.
The poll results come amid reports of growing unease inside Labour's parliamentary ranks. The Daily Mail reported claims that as many as 10 Labour MPs have told party whips they no longer have confidence in Sir Keir Starmer's leadership, and other MPs have warned he could be replaced if local election results in May mirror the poll's trends. The scale of unrest has not been independently verified by ITV Wales or YouGov.
Senior Labour figures have voiced criticism in recent days. Lucy Powell, a contender for the party's deputy leadership, said in an interview that mistakes and "unforced errors" had left the public feeling the government was not "on their side." Powell was removed from her role in a recent cabinet reshuffle and has been identified in polling as the frontrunner to replace Angela Rayner, who resigned from the deputy post amid controversy over her tax affairs.
Downing Street faces multiple political headaches. The prime minister moved to withdraw his proposed nomination of Lord Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States after reports concerning emails sent to Jeffrey Epstein, a decision described by aides as necessary to steady the government. Officials and party figures have described the period as turbulent as ministers prepare for a busy autumn and the run-up to next spring's devolved and local elections.
The timing of the poll coincides with the start of a state visit by former U.S. President Donald Trump, an event that Downing Street hopes will shift public attention. The state visit has been framed by ministers as an opportunity to advance UK–U.S. ties, but it also adds an international spotlight to a government already managing domestic political strain.
Analysts say the poll highlights shifting party dynamics in Wales, where regional list seats under the reformed system can amplify the effect of changes in vote share. Plaid's lead and Reform's surge reflect both regional issues and broader UK trends, including voter realignment on matters such as immigration, the economy and perceptions of party competence.
The YouGov/Barn Cymru poll is one data point in a long campaign cycle; voting intentions can change as parties select candidates, set manifestos and respond to unfolding events. Labour strategists will be watching subsequent polling closely as they decide how aggressively to defend constituencies and shape messaging ahead of the Senedd vote in May.