Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that Russia is likely to intensify provocations against European countries, particularly targeting Ukraine's border crossing points with the European Union. Tusk's statement comes after two incidents this week near Ukraine's borders with Poland and Moldova, which he described as a preview of potential Russian actions.
On Tuesday night, Russian drones struck the Starokozache border crossing between Ukraine and Moldova, resulting in two fatalities. A potential threat to a Polish-Ukrainian crossing on Wednesday night was averted due to cooperation between Warsaw and Kyiv, according to Tusk. He did not provide further details or evidence of Russian involvement in the Polish incident.
Tusk stated he received a briefing from CIA Director Jim Ratcliffe, who recently visited Moscow, regarding the risks posed by Russia in the region in the coming months. "Russia already decided to engage in provocative attacks on border crossing points, for example in Moldova," Tusk said, adding that similar actions are expected at border crossings with Ukraine in other countries, including Poland. He indicated that Ratcliffe's information suggests Poland and Europe should prepare for "various scenarios" on the Russian-Ukrainian front and along the EU's eastern flank.
Moldova, a candidate for EU membership, has experienced multiple incidents near its southern border crossings with Ukraine in recent weeks. These include a drone explosion on Ukrainian territory near Moldova's Giurgiulesti crossing on August 20, and debris from a Russian-used drone found on Moldovan territory. On August 25, Moldova temporarily suspended activity at its Vulcanesti crossing after an Iranian-made Shahed drone struck the Ukrainian side.
Moldova's pro-Western President Maia Sandu condemned Russia following the Starokozache incident, stating that Moscow's "brutal war is reaching our border."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also reported that a border crossing with NATO-member Romania was "deliberately damaged" last week, along with export infrastructure. Romania has also reported a significant increase in drone incursions and the discovery of drone debris on its territory this year.
Tusk has previously expressed concerns about potential Russian military or hybrid provocations against Poland and the Baltic states. He reiterated these concerns following his briefing with the CIA director, emphasizing that the information aligns with his months-long warnings.
CIA Director Jim Ratcliffe visited Moscow in late August for discussions with Russian intelligence counterparts, with speculation that potential threats to NATO were among the topics. Separately, Poland's minister overseeing intelligence services met with Ratcliffe at CIA headquarters this week to discuss security and cooperation.
An American delegation, including representatives from the Department of Defense and Department of State, is currently visiting Poland to assess potential locations for a permanent U.S. military base. Poland has long sought to host such a base as a security guarantee against perceived Russian threats.