Poland is actively preparing for the possibility of conflict, with Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk stating that the country is "preparing for war, hoping that it never happens." The Polish Embassy in Washington clarified that these accelerated defense preparations are intended to deter potential aggression rather than signal that conflict is imminent. The embassy cited Poland's defense spending, which approaches 5% of GDP, and invoked the principle "Si vis pacem, para bellum"—"If you want peace, prepare for war." This strategy, according to the embassy, is a response to Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and perceived imperial ambitions.
A European diplomat, speaking anonymously, corroborated Poland's assessment, noting a pattern of escalating Russian pressure across multiple fronts. This includes disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, sabotage efforts, and repeated tests of Poland's air defenses, alongside increasingly frequent nuclear rhetoric from Russian officials. "Altogether, it shows quite clearly that if Russia or Belarus saw any chance to attack Poland to destroy an obstacle to restoring the Soviet or Tsarist Russian empire in Eastern Europe, they would do it without hesitation," the diplomat told Fox News Digital.
Escalating Rhetoric and Hybrid Threats
The warnings coincide with heightened tensions between Moscow and London. Russia's embassy in Britain threatened unspecified "consequences" after reports emerged that British-made drones had been used by Ukraine for long-range strikes inside Russia. Britain's Ministry of Defence did not confirm the use of British drones, but the Russian Embassy stated, "London’s actions will inevitably carry consequences for which it will have to answer." Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov further escalated the rhetoric, suggesting Moscow had the right to consider direct British involvement in strikes on Russian territory as participation in the war.
Former Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, who previously commanded U.S. European Command and served as NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, expressed concern shared by many former military leaders. "It’s a problem that many of us are worried about," Breedlove said. "They’re trying to test the alliance: Is Italy going to go to war? Is Spain going to go to war? There are several places where Russia could try to snatch something. Their goal is to divide and ultimately break up the alliance." Breedlove warned that Moscow might attempt a provocation calibrated to create uncertainty over whether NATO should respond collectively, aiming to expose divisions among allies.
Breedlove also highlighted Russia's extensive information warfare campaign, designed to achieve "reflexive control" and force NATO capitulation. He noted that Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy, logistics, and defense-industrial targets are increasing pressure on the Kremlin, potentially leading Putin to portray NATO as the external enemy. However, Breedlove cautioned that while NATO is capable of conventional warfare, it is not adequately prepared for the "new kind of drone warfare that Russia is waging against Ukraine," stating that Western air defense capabilities are insufficient for the current level of drone warfare.
Similar warnings have emerged from other eastern-flank governments. In mid-July, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda reported that intelligence indicated possible limited Russian attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltics or Poland. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also stated that Warsaw was preparing "very intensively for various scenarios," according to reports at the time, though Russia rejected the allegations.