Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that the country is preparing for "various" scenarios and that the coming months could be "critical" in the face of a potential threat from Russia. His remarks on Friday came in response to media reports, citing U.S. intelligence, that Moscow may be planning an armed "provocation" within Poland to test NATO's resolve.
"I don't mean to scare anyone, but the coming months may truly be critical, also due to the changing nature of the war," Tusk told reporters. "These concerns are particularly palpable in the Baltic states."
Polish news outlet Onet reported that sources close to President Karol Nawrocki indicated the U.S. had issued several warnings to Warsaw regarding an alleged plot to attack the country. The reports, also published by the U.K.'s Telegraph, suggest that Russian plans could involve targeting Polish infrastructure with missiles or drones, or sending soldiers into the NATO state. The purported aim would be to pressure Ukraine's Western allies to suspend aid to Kyiv as it continues to defend against Russia's full-scale invasion, launched in 2022.
Tusk acknowledged the seriousness of the situation, stating, "Let's not be afraid, we are preparing for various situations, but we cannot ignore them... We are aware of the threats, also thanks to information from our allies."
Polish President Nawrocki is scheduled to attend a NATO summit with other member state leaders in Turkey next week. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has indicated that the gathering will highlight increased European defense spending, in line with long-standing calls from U.S. President Donald Trump. Leaders are also expected to reaffirm their commitment to supporting Ukraine with weapons.
This warning follows previous concerns voiced by Polish officials. In April, Tusk told the Financial Times that Russia could attack a NATO member state within months. In late June, Deputy Prime Minister Radek Sikorski told CBS News that he could not rule out a Russian "false flag" operation within the next two years as a pretext for an attack on a NATO state.
Concerns about vulnerability to Russian aggression have also been echoed by Baltic states. Latvian media reported in June that its intelligence services had warned of Moscow's alleged plans for military provocations in the region or in Poland. Lithuania's ambassador to NATO stated on Thursday that Russia is more likely to employ hybrid warfare tactics, such as missile or drone incursions, rather than a conventional military assault, according to the country's public service broadcaster LRT. NATO's Article 5 mandates that an armed attack against one member state is considered an attack against all, triggering a collective defense response.