Paxton, Talarico Rallies Collide in Texas as Senate Race Tightens
The race for Texas' junior Senate seat is nearing a dead heat, with both Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico holding campaign events in the same city.
Two weeks before the election, the race for Texas' junior Senate seat has tightened significantly, with Democratic State Representative James Talarico holding a narrow lead over Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, according to polling averages.
The campaigns are set to converge on Fort Worth on Monday for competing rallies. Paxton's 'Come and Take It' tour will feature U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while Talarico's 'Clear Eyes, Full Hearts' run will host events in the same territory.
Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1993. However, a University of Houston poll released Monday shows Talarico leading Paxton 48 percent to 46 percent. This close contest could have national implications, potentially determining which party controls the Senate in the final two years of Donald Trump's term.
Paxton, who has faced past accusations of corruption and was impeached by the Texas legislature, is facing unexpected challenges in a state that Trump won by over 13 points in 2024. He has received significant financial backing from Austin resident Elon Musk, who contributed $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which in turn supported Paxton's campaign through the Texas PAC. Musk also provided $10 million to Lone Star Liberty PAC, another group supporting Paxton.
Talarico has positioned himself as an outsider challenging the Republican establishment, emphasizing his focus on affordability. He has sought to distance himself from national Democratic figures, including President Joe Biden's administration, and has a strategy aimed at appealing to a broad range of voters across the state.
Recent campaign finance filings showed Talarico's campaign outperforming Paxton's in fundraising from donors eager to see Texas potentially shift away from its Republican leanings. Talarico's campaign has also highlighted Musk's financial involvement as evidence that the system is rigged by billionaires and politicians.
Election forecaster Nate Silver's latest model gives Democrats a 75 percent chance of winning the Senate, an increase from 50 percent in early September. These probabilities are based on his model and do not guarantee election outcomes.