New polling data indicates that Pauline Hanson's One Nation party has reached a 30 percent primary vote, a level that has significant implications for both the Australian Labor Party and the Coalition. This figure places One Nation neck and neck with Labor and considerably ahead of the Coalition, which is polling at 19 percent.
Recent weeks have seen Hanson make a series of controversial statements, including declaring multiculturalism a failure, expressing admiration for far-right activist Tommy Robinson, and suggesting a link between the abolition of the White Australia policy and current migration issues. She also made remarks about a British proposal for mass deportations, which she described as "I love it." These comments have not resulted in a significant drop in support for her party.
Analysts suggest that One Nation's strength is not solely dependent on admiration for Hanson herself. Many voters who support the party may not endorse her language or extreme claims. Instead, the support appears to stem from a coalition of grievances, including concerns over migration, housing affordability, the cost of living, and skepticism towards net-zero policies. Furthermore, a widespread contempt for the political establishment is a significant factor, with voters viewing Hanson as an authentic voice willing to challenge the status quo.
This narrative is amplified when the political establishment condemns her statements, which is perceived by her supporters as validation of their distrust in those institutions. Critics who believe Hanson's support is capped between 20 to 30 percent may be underestimating her influence, particularly in a fragmented political system.
The polling shift represents a reversal of fortune compared to the 2025 election, where the Coalition held a substantial primary vote advantage over One Nation. Now, the dynamic has inverted, leading to concerns within the Coalition that their electoral preferences might flow to One Nation rather than the other way around. This could jeopardize Coalition candidates in numerous electorates if they finish third in the vote count.
Furthermore, the strategy of chasing Hanson's support base to the right is seen as alienating moderate Liberal voters, while direct attacks on her can antagonize the very voters the Coalition needs to win back. This approach has allowed One Nation to solidify its position as a major political force, supplanting the Coalition in that regard.
While Labor is unlikely to find comfort in its current polling, its position is perceived as more insulated due to Green Party preferences and the fragmentation on the right. The prevailing sentiment among voters suggests a deep dissatisfaction with the major parties, creating an environment where One Nation's support has grown despite, or perhaps because of, Hanson's controversial public commentary.