The Paris appeals court is scheduled to issue a ruling Tuesday in the embezzlement case involving Marine Le Pen, a decision that could significantly impact her potential candidacy in the 2027 French presidential election.

Le Pen, 57, is appealing a March 2025 conviction that found her and other members of her National Rally party guilty of misusing European Parliament funds. The lower court determined that funds intended for EU parliamentary assistants were instead used to pay party staff between 2004 and 2016.

Following the initial conviction, Le Pen received a prison sentence, suspended pending appeal, and a five-year ban from holding elected office. She has maintained her innocence and expressed a desire to pursue a fourth presidential bid.

Should Le Pen be disqualified from running, Jordan Bardella, 30, a close associate and leader of the National Rally, could emerge as the party's presidential nominee, potentially altering the political landscape for the election to succeed President Emmanuel Macron.

During the appeal trial, which spanned five weeks earlier this year, Le Pen admitted to a "mistake," acknowledging that some employees paid as EU parliamentary aides also performed work for her party, then known as the National Front. She asserted, however, that she believed this practice was permissible and that she made no attempt to conceal it. Le Pen also criticized European Parliament officials for not previously informing her party of potential rule violations regarding staff compensation.

Prosecutors are seeking a four-year prison sentence for Le Pen, with three years suspended, along with a five-year ban on holding elected office. They have accused Le Pen of orchestrating a "system" designed to divert EU public funds for her party's benefit.

Le Pen's legal team has emphasized the potential impact of the ruling on her career. Her lawyer, Rodolphe Bosselut, stated during the proceedings that the court's decision would determine whether "the work of her life" could continue or would need to be "rebuilt."

Several potential outcomes exist. In the most favorable scenario for Le Pen, the appeals court could acquit her of all charges. Alternatively, the court might uphold a guilty verdict but reduce the ban on holding elected office to two years or less, or impose no ban at all. The lower court's ban, which took effect on March 31 of last year, would expire before the first round of the French presidential election in April 2027 if reduced to two years or less.

However, a reduced ban does not guarantee Le Pen's ability to campaign effectively. Any prison sentence, requirement for electronic monitoring, or other judicial restrictions could substantially impede a nationwide campaign. Le Pen has indicated that she would not seek the presidency under such circumstances.

"If I’m allowed to be a candidate but am effectively prevented from campaigning freely, then you understand that wouldn’t be possible," Le Pen stated in a recent interview. "I can’t be dependent on a judge to authorize me to go hold a campaign rally ... or to visit a market."

The appeals court has the discretion to enforce the ban on holding elected office immediately, mirroring the lower court's decision. Even if acquitted, prosecutors retain the option to appeal to the Court of Cassation, France's highest court. The Court of Cassation has previously indicated it would aim to rule on any such case before the 2027 presidential election. Le Pen has expressed concern that prolonged legal uncertainty, including a potential further appeal, could prevent her from launching a viable campaign, particularly given the logistical challenges of securing endorsements from 500 elected officials and the typical timeline for presidential races, which begin to solidify in September and accelerate early the following year.