Outcome of Russia's Parliamentary Elections Largely Preordained, Experts Say

Russia is in the midst of three-day parliamentary elections, the first since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with the outcome widely expected to preserve the dominance of the Kremlin-aligned United Russia party in the State Duma. The party currently holds 310 of the 450 seats and needs to maintain at least 300 to retain its supermajority.

Four other parties—the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, A Just Russia, and New People—are also anticipated to secure representation. These parties generally align with United Russia and support the war in Ukraine.

Democracy watchdogs and international observers have historically criticized Russia's elections as neither free nor fair. Russian officials maintain that their voting processes comply with the law. However, experts suggest the Russian government employs various methods to ensure President Vladimir Putin and United Russia maintain control.

"Without a doubt, the most powerful tool" in the Kremlin's approach is limiting candidate eligibility, according to David Szakonyi, a professor at George Washington University specializing in Russian elections and fraud. This year, the Supreme Court barred the anti-war Yabloko party from participating, citing accusations of copyright infringement, foreign funding, and extremism. Szakonyi notes that the judiciary can be harnessed to provide a "legal veneer" for government influence.

Opposition figures who oppose the war have also been designated "foreign agents," a status that disqualifies them from holding public office. Prominent opposition leaders like Alexei Navalny have faced prosecution and imprisonment, while others have fled the country.

Experts also indicate that the Russian government intervenes in vote counts to achieve desired results. Historically, this involved "crude ballot box stuffing," but now includes altering online vote results. The expansion of online voting in over a third of Russia's regions, Szakonyi argues, shifts power to the government as it removes the physical tally of paper ballots, making the counting process largely opaque. Regina Smyth, a professor at Indiana University studying authoritarian regimes, states that vote "falsification" occurs at the approximately 90,000 precinct election commissions, which are often staffed by "loyalists" who report false numbers. Fraud has also been alleged in "mobile voting," where officials collect ballots from individuals unable to vote in person.

An "implicit threat" from the government influences voters, Szakonyi contends. Many Russians who work for state-run organizations, such as university students, healthcare workers, and teachers, may fear reprisal more than they value their vote. This creates a "block of captive, vulnerable voters."

Elections are also being held in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, including Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Smyth reports that in these territories, "soldiers, heavily armed soldiers, travel from house to house coercing people to vote."

Compounding these issues is a lack of independent election oversight. Golos, the sole independent election watchdog in Russia, closed in 2025 after facing governmental pressure, including its chairman being found guilty of working with an "undesirable organization." Szakonyi described Golos's closure as a "the biggest blow toward any type of accountability."

Russia has also declined to invite international election monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Maria Telalian, director of the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, expressed regret, noting it continues a pattern of non-implementation of commitments. This marks the third nationwide election in Russia held without OSCE observation; severe limitations in 2021 made monitoring impossible, and the group was not invited to the 2024 presidential election.

Despite the predetermined outcomes, these elections hold symbolic significance for Putin's legitimacy and his administration's continuation of the war in Ukraine. "Putin's legitimacy depends on his ability to win election votes to the presidency and have his ruling party win on a regular interval," Szakonyi explained. Putin himself stated before the vote that participation would show that "millions of people stand behind our fighters" and that "participating in the elections is our shared contribution to Russia’s victory."