A new poll indicates that Oregon, a traditionally Democratic stronghold, may elect a Republican governor for the first time in four decades. The survey places Republican State Senator Christine Drazan ahead of the incumbent Democratic Governor Tina Kotek.
According to polling results obtained by Oregon Live, 48 percent of surveyed individuals indicated they would likely or definitely vote for Drazan. This figure is four percentage points higher than the 44 percent who stated they would support Kotek. The poll, conducted by a Republican-aligned firm on behalf of Drazan's campaign team, surveyed potential voters across the state in late June. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus four points.
Drazan's campaign reportedly shared these results with lobbyists and potential donors this week, in anticipation of the November election. If successful, Drazan would become the first Republican governor in Oregon since Victor Atiyeh, who was last elected in 1982.
The poll also highlighted low approval ratings for Governor Kotek, with only 38 percent of respondents approving of her tenure. Nearly three-fifths of those surveyed expressed a belief that the state is on the wrong track. Issues such as crime and quality of life in Portland, while seeing a decrease in violent offenses from recent highs, have been ongoing concerns since 2020.
A campaign strategist for Drazan, Trey Rosser, stated that the poll should serve as a "wake-up call" for Kotek, citing public frustration with the rising cost of living, housing affordability, homelessness, and the governor's policies.
Kotek's campaign responded by asserting that Drazan is out of step with Oregon values and suggested that voters will reject her based on her past alignment with what they characterized as "Trump’s dangerous and unpopular agenda." The two candidates previously faced each other in the 2022 election, where Kotek won with 47.0 percent of the vote compared to Drazan's 43.5 percent.