A recent poll has revealed a significant shift in the Victorian political landscape, with One Nation now leading both the incumbent Labor party and the Coalition in primary vote intention. The survey indicates One Nation has garnered 27 percent of the primary vote, placing it ahead of Labor and the Coalition, who are each polling at 26 percent.
The poll, which surveyed 5,516 Victorians between June 17 and June 28, was conducted by the Australian Financial Review, RedBridge, and Accent Research. It reported a margin of error of 1.4 percent.
Premier Jacinta Allan's net favorability has seen a substantial decline, dropping to minus 42 percent, which is described as one of the lowest figures ever recorded for a state premier. In the same poll, Labor saw a one-point increase from a February survey, while the Coalition experienced a two-point decrease. The Greens maintained their position at 13 percent.
According to Redbridge director Tony Barry, for Labor to secure victory in the upcoming November election, the party would need to see its primary vote improve by several more points. Analysts suggest that Labor requires at least a four-point increase in its primary vote to establish a viable path to winning the election. The Coalition, on its current polling numbers, would likely need to seek support from One Nation to form a government.