One Nation has experienced a significant decline in voter support, with its primary vote dropping for the second consecutive week, according to recent Roy Morgan polling. This downturn follows Pauline Hanson's National Press Club address in June, where she stated that Australia cannot be multicultural and must maintain a 'monocultural society'.
The Roy Morgan poll, conducted between June 29 and July 5 and surveying 1,584 Australian electors, indicates that One Nation's primary vote has fallen by 3.5 percentage points to 22.5 percent. This follows a 5.5-point decrease in the previous week, totaling a nine-point drop from its recent peak of 31.5 percent.
In the same poll, Labor maintained its position as the leading party with a steady 28 percent primary vote. The Coalition remained at 21.5 percent, comprising 19 percent for the Liberals and 2.5 percent for the Nationals. The Greens saw a one-point increase to 14 percent, while support for Independents and other parties rose by 2.5 points to 14 percent.
Roy Morgan's analysis suggests that Labor would secure a majority government if an election were held at this time, regardless of whether One Nation or the Coalition was the final challenger in key seats. This scenario represents a three-point gain for Labor and a three-point decline for One Nation compared to the prior survey period. Labor also continues to hold a substantial lead over the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis, currently at 55-45, an increase of 1.5 points.
This trend of declining support for One Nation is reflected in other recent polls. A Newspoll from the previous week showed Labor's primary vote increasing by three points to 33 percent, while One Nation dropped two points to 29 percent. The Coalition reached a record low of 17 percent, and the Greens gained two points to 13 percent. Separately, a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll for the Financial Review indicated Labor rising two points to 30 percent, surpassing One Nation, which dipped two points to 29 percent. In that poll, the Coalition fell to 18 percent, and the Greens reached a term-best of 14 percent.