One Nation has achieved significant electoral victories in two diverse Western Australian electorates, a development that could signal a broader shift in Australia's political alignment and challenge the dominance of the Liberal and Labor parties.
In a recent state by-election for Secret Harbour, a suburban seat in outer Perth, One Nation's candidate surged from 8.4% to 39.1% of the primary vote. This represents a more than 30 percentage point increase since the last state general election. The incumbent Labor party saw its primary vote collapse from 46.5% to 24.4%, while the Liberal party garnered 17.3%. Although counting continues and Labor hopes postal votes might secure a narrow victory, One Nation is currently leading. This result follows a similar pattern in the federal electorate of Farrer, a long-held conservative stronghold, where a One Nation candidate secured 39.5% of the primary vote, winning on preferences.
These victories demonstrate One Nation's ability to draw support from both traditional Labor and Liberal voter bases, challenging the notion that the party's appeal is confined to a specific demographic or political leaning. The party is no longer solely relying on siphoning votes from conservative voters and then returning them via preferences; it is now capable of replacing major party candidates altogether.
The implications of this electoral success are particularly concerning for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's Labor government. Western Australia was instrumental in Labor's 2022 federal majority, with the party winning nine of the state's 15 seats after a campaign launch in Perth. Labor's 55.8% two-party preferred vote in Western Australia at the last federal election was its best result since 1949. The outcome in Secret Harbour suggests a potential erosion of this support base, described as Albanese's "electoral fortress."
The results also raise concerns for federal Liberal MPs in Western Australia. A significant portion of the Secret Harbour state seat overlaps with Andrew Hastie's federal electorate of Canning, making him a potentially vulnerable target for One Nation. The remainder falls within Madeleine King's Labor-held federal seat of Brand, and similar suburban communities are present across other Perth electorates that underpin Labor's federal dominance.
While by-election swings cannot be directly extrapolated to federal elections, even a fraction of the recent movement could disrupt Labor's strong position in Western Australia and further diminish the Liberal party's presence. The Liberal state leader's assertion that a One Nation victory would somehow benefit his party has been met with criticism, given the Liberal party's primary vote decline and third-place finish in Secret Harbour.
Future state elections in Victoria and New South Wales will serve as further tests for One Nation's ability to recruit candidates, withstand scrutiny, and convert polling numbers into lower house seats. Nationally, One Nation is reportedly polling in the mid to high 20s, ahead of the Coalition and close to Labor. This suggests that at the next federal election, a four-way contest for primary votes could lead to unpredictable outcomes, potentially challenging Australia's long-standing two-party system.