New polling data from the Resolve Political Monitor suggests a notable shift in support between Pauline Hanson's One Nation and the Coalition, potentially altering the landscape of the Australian political opposition. The latest poll shows One Nation's primary vote has fallen by three points to 26%, while the Coalition has seen a three-point increase, bringing their support to 23%. This narrowing of the gap, if it develops into a sustained trend, could define the political contest in the lead-up to the next federal election.
Despite these shifts, the governing Labor party's primary vote stands at 28%, indicating that no single party is achieving widespread popularity. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's preferred prime minister rating is 33%, a figure that suggests the electorate has not renewed its enthusiasm for his leadership. However, Labor remains in a relatively strong position due to the fragmentation of the vote on its right flank.
Combined, Labor and the Greens hold 40% of the primary vote, requiring an additional 10% through preferences to secure a majority. On the right, One Nation and the Coalition together command 49% of the vote. The dynamics of Australia's compulsory preferential voting system mean that the order in which parties are eliminated and how their preferences flow are crucial. While preferences between the Coalition and One Nation may not transfer as seamlessly as they do from the Greens to Labor, a significant portion is still expected to flow.
The critical question remains whether this combined right-wing vote will be enough to challenge Labor in marginal seats. The competition between the Coalition and One Nation for second place in electorates could significantly damage both parties' chances of forming a government. The order of elimination in preferential voting is paramount, with the candidate eliminated first having their preferences distributed to the remaining candidates.
If the Coalition is eliminated before One Nation, its preferences could potentially elevate One Nation past Labor. Conversely, if One Nation is eliminated first, its preferences might assist the Coalition. However, the extent to which One Nation supporters will follow how-to-vote cards to place the Liberal or National candidate ahead of Labor is uncertain. Small margins could determine who ultimately benefits from the accumulated preferences on the right.
The Coalition's immediate objective, therefore, is not necessarily to surpass Labor's national primary vote but to outlast One Nation in enough electorates to remain competitive in the later stages of preference counts. The recent poll provides Opposition Leader Angus Taylor with a potential reprieve; the three-point increase in Coalition support while One Nation dropped three points has halved their gap to just three points.
While one poll does not establish a definitive trend, the shift could alter the narrative from one of terminal decline to potential survival for the Coalition. Taylor remains behind Pauline Hanson in personal leader ratings, but if this trend continues, it could bolster his position. Another preference dynamic could also benefit the Coalition: Labor might place One Nation last on its how-to-vote cards. In seats where Labor is eliminated in third place, its preferences could inadvertently lead to the election of a Coalition candidate, as Labor voters may be directed to save their traditional opponent to block a One Nation MP.
National polling figures can mask significant geographical disparities. One Nation's support is likely concentrated in regional and outer-suburban areas, a pattern highlighted by its strong performance in the Farrer by-election, where it captured nearly 40% of the primary vote in a former Coalition stronghold. This illustrates that while One Nation might trail the Coalition nationally, it could still pose a significant threat in specific regional electorates.
Leadership ratings also reveal shifts, with Albanese gaining four points to 33% and Taylor gaining five points to 21%. Hanson, however, experienced a significant drop of eight points, now at 25%. While Hanson remains ahead of Taylor, her increased visibility has led to more intense scrutiny of One Nation's platform. The party's surge was initially fueled by voter dissatisfaction with issues such as immigration, the cost of living, and perceived failures of major parties. As One Nation moves from a protest movement to a potential alternative government, its cultural agenda and unfunded economic proposals, while appealing to its base, risk alienating the swing voters it needs.
Taylor's recent criticisms of One Nation's financial costings appear designed to accelerate this scrutiny, prompting voters to evaluate Hanson not just as a protest figure but as a potential prime minister. Prime Minister Albanese also benefits from this dynamic, with his improved rating likely reflecting a sense of comparative reassurance rather than renewed affection for his leadership.
With more than 18 months until the next election, One Nation has time to recover. Its support is rooted in genuine community grievances, not simply a temporary protest. However, the three-point contraction in its support indicates that its rise is not irreversible. The upcoming federal campaign will subject the party to unprecedented scrutiny regarding its candidates, financial plans, internal discipline, and the practical implications of seeking governmental power. Currently, Labor is viewed as unpopular but protected, One Nation as ahead but vulnerable, and the Coalition as losing but with a path to relevance.