Labor faces a significant challenge in holding the Western Australian seat of Secret Harbour, a traditionally safe electorate, in an upcoming by-election. The contest, triggered by the mid-term retirement of long-serving MP and senior government minister Paul Papalia, is seeing One Nation emerge as a strong contender.
Political analyst John Phillimore noted that momentum appears to be with One Nation, citing the party's extensive volunteer network and organization. However, Phillimore also cautioned against early predictions, highlighting that One Nation's support in Western Australia, while increasing, is not as high as in other parts of the country. A recent survey indicated Labor holding steady with 33 percent of the primary vote in Western Australia, while One Nation and the Liberals each garnered 21 percent, with One Nation showing a three percent increase since June.
Despite the expected challenge, Western Australia Premier Roger Cook acknowledged the difficulty of retaining the outer suburban seat, which has an 11.5 percent margin for Labor. He conceded it would be a battle, observing a surge in One Nation's popularity on the east coast and a degree of that trend crossing into Western Australia. Cook also emphasized that the outcome would have minimal impact on his government, which secured a substantial victory in the 2025 state election with 46 out of 59 lower house seats.
The performance of One Nation in Secret Harbour is being closely watched nationwide, particularly in Victoria, where a state election is scheduled for November. The by-election could also have implications for federal politics, with senior Liberal MP Andrew Hastie's marginal seat of Canning, which encompasses Secret Harbour, being targeted by One Nation. Hastie, who retained his seat with a reduced margin of 6.5 percent last year, has committed to defending it. One Nation is reportedly preparing to announce a candidate for Canning in the next federal election.
