One Nation Leads Labor in Historic Melbourne Seat Poll

A recent poll commissioned by the Greens has revealed a significant decline in Labor's support in the Melbourne electorate of Footscray, a seat the Labor party has held for nearly a century. The survey of 1,000 voters, conducted between September 22 and October 1, shows One Nation leading with 28.6 percent of the primary vote, narrowly ahead of Labor's 27.5 percent.

This result represents a substantial change from the 2022 Victorian election, where Labor secured 43.1 percent of the primary vote in Footscray. If these poll numbers were to be replicated at an election, it would signify a 15.6 percentage point drop in Labor's primary support in just four years. The poll placed the Liberal Party at 15.1 percent and the Greens at 14.9 percent, with other parties and independents collectively holding 13.9 percent.

Footscray, which has been a continuous Labor stronghold since its establishment in 1927, encompasses areas including Footscray, Maidstone, Maribyrnong, Seddon, West Footscray, and parts of Yarraville. In the 2022 election, Labor Member of Parliament Katie Hall, who was first elected in 2018, won the seat with 43.1 percent of the primary vote before securing victory over the Greens on preferences. The Greens candidate at that election, Elena Pereyra, garnered 22.4 percent of the primary vote and reached the final count against Ms. Hall.

The new polling also suggests a sharp decrease in Greens support, placing them behind both One Nation and Labor in this survey. The candidate for One Nation in Footscray, Alexander Lopez, is a financial controller with over three decades of experience in various industries including transport, logistics, manufacturing, and property management. He migrated to Australia from Argentina in 1975 and grew up in the western suburbs of Melbourne.

The poll results for Footscray appear to align with broader trends observed across Victoria. A separate Freshwater Strategy poll of 1,030 voters conducted from September 24 to 28 indicated a decline in Labor's primary vote to 24 percent, a one-point drop from August. The Coalition also saw a slight decrease, falling to 29 percent. One Nation remained steady at 22 percent, and the Greens held at 14 percent.

On a two-party preferred basis, the Freshwater Strategy poll showed the Coalition leading Labor 53-47. This represents an eight-point swing against the government compared to the 2022 election results. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson was preferred Premier with 37 percent, followed by Ben Carroll at 30 percent, while One Nation's Victorian leader Warren Pickering was preferred by 13 percent of voters. Victorian Premier Ben Carroll faces mounting pressure amidst these declining poll numbers for his party.