An average of 8.6 million barrels of oil a day have been flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a recent update from maritime analyst firm Kpler. This figure aligns with estimates previously put forth by the Trump administration and accounts for previously unrecorded oil movements.
Maritime tracking firms, including Kpler, had initially reported figures closer to 5 million barrels daily. However, new data incorporates "dark transits" – instances where ships disable their transponders – and secret ship-to-ship transfers, which were not previously factored into the calculations.
The practice of using dark fleet tactics involves tankers shutting off their tracking systems days or weeks before traversing the Strait, only reappearing on radar long after their journey is complete. These movements were not consistently captured by tracking firms.
Additionally, clandestine ship-to-ship transfers, where cargo is transferred to other vessels to avoid transit through the Strait due to threats of Iranian attacks, have also complicated the data. These shipments were often categorized under Gulf of Oman net exports rather than direct Strait of Hormuz clearances.
Kpler stated that when a movement is confirmed late, it is backdated to its likely transit or Gulf of Oman lifting date, rather than being logged on the day of confirmation. This method helps to fill in historical data where barrels actually moved, preventing artificial spikes in present-day figures.
While the average oil flow out of the Strait of Hormuz has increased since June, it remains less than half of the approximately 20 million barrels per day that passed through before recent conflicts. The firm noted that recent figures represent a floor, with ongoing verification likely to update these numbers further.