Oil Flow Through Strait of Hormuz Exceeds 12 Million Barrels Daily Amidst Increased Iranian Attacks
Analysts report a surge in oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz in October, defying a recent increase in attacks originating from Iran.
More than 12 million barrels of oil are traversing the Strait of Hormuz daily this month, an increase from September's average, despite a rise in attacks attributed to Iran, according to analysts. This trend continues even as maritime security firms report a significant uptick in threats to vessels operating in the region.
According to TankerTracker.com and the maritime analyst firm Kpler, oil flow through the strait has seen an increase since September, with an average of over 9 million barrels passing daily under US military protection. This surge in exports occurs despite 26 vessels reportedly coming under attack in October, marking it as one of the most dangerous periods for tankers and cargo ships since the conflict began.
The risks were highlighted on Wednesday when a cargo ship sank after being struck by an unidentified projectile, according to Iranian military and maritime incident analysts. Despite these dangers, the increased flow suggests that the potential profits for sailors are outweighing the risks, with reports indicating that crews are earning significantly more per trip for navigating these hazardous waters.
Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for US Central Command (CENTCOM), estimated that approximately 19 million barrels of oil transited the strait on Monday alone. "Transits through the Strait of Hormuz continue despite Iran’s unwarranted aggression," Hawkins told The New York Times.
However, the oil trade has recently shown signs of strain. Following some of Iran's most intense attacks, flow plummeted this past week. While nearly 23 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz last Thursday, Kpler data indicates that only a fraction of that volume transited on Wednesday.
Kpler's latest six-day average shows that less than 4.6 million barrels of oil are transiting the strait daily. Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have also remained low over the past week, according to maritime analysts. The volatile situation, coupled with repeated attacks on energy infrastructure, has contributed to maintaining the price of oil, with the Brent international benchmark remaining above $104 per barrel as of Thursday.