Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has emerged as the frontrunner in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic presidential primary field in New Hampshire, according to a new University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll. She garnered 22% support among likely Democratic primary voters, placing her one percentage point ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Ocasio-Cortez saw a seven-point increase in support since a February survey, while former Vice President Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom experienced a decline. Harris polled at 5%, down from 10% in the earlier survey, and Newsom was at 5%, a seven-point drop.
Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, noted that Ocasio-Cortez holds the support of nearly half of socialists and one-third of progressives, while Buttigieg appeals to pluralities of liberals and moderates. "I suspect that's not going to happen," said Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, when asked about another White House run, indicating he is unlikely to compete in 2028. Sanders registered 6% support in the poll.
Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona placed third in the poll with 9% support. While Ocasio-Cortez has remained non-committal about her 2028 intentions, stating her goal is to "change the country," she has not ruled out a presidential bid or a potential Senate run against Sen. Chuck Schumer.
Harris, who was the Democratic nominee in 2024, leads an average of national polls for the prospective 2028 nomination. However, the New Hampshire poll indicates a shift in momentum among early primary state voters. The Democratic National Committee is expected to finalize a new calendar for the 2028 presidential nominating contests soon.
In the hypothetical Republican primary field tested in the same New Hampshire poll, Vice President JD Vance led with 36% support, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 26%. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and former ambassador Nikki Haley each garnered 8% support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis received 6% support.