NYPD Commissioner Tisch a Potential 2029 Mayoral Challenger to Mamdani, Poll Suggests

NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch could present a formidable challenge to Mayor Zohran Mamdani's re-election prospects in 2029, according to a recent poll.

The survey, conducted by Honan Strategy Group, shows Mamdani with support from 54% of likely Democratic primary voters. However, Tisch secures 17% of the vote, positioning her as a strong second contender, even without a declared political candidacy.

This polling data emerges as Mamdani faces pressure to dismiss Tisch. Activists advocating for law enforcement reform and members of the Democratic Socialists of America have called for Tisch's removal following an incident involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the Bronx. During the incident, federal agents shot an individual suspected of gang involvement who attempted to evade arrest in a vehicle carrying a child. City police were not involved in the shooting itself, but Mamdani's administration has pledged to review the local response, including the NYPD's handling of subsequent protests.

Mamdani, who retained Tisch from the previous administration, has stated he has no intention of parting ways with his police commissioner. The national DSA and other progressive groups have amplified calls for Tisch's termination in the wake of the ICE shooting.

The Honan poll also revealed Mamdani's strong standing in hypothetical head-to-head matchups for a ranked-choice election, particularly as he approaches the end of his first year in office. He leads Tisch 54% to 25% in a direct contest. He also holds advantages over other potential challengers, including Menin (56%-19%), City Comptroller Mark Levine (55%-16%), Queens Borough President Donovan Richards (with a 40-point lead), and Bronx Borough President Vanessa Gibson (with a 45-point lead).

Overall job approval among Democrats is high, with 73% expressing approval, including 54% who strongly approve. Two-thirds of Democrats rate Mamdani's performance as mayor as excellent or good, while 31% consider it fair or poor. Regarding re-election, 56% of Democrats favor Mamdani's return, compared to 29% who believe it is time for a new leader.

"Mamdani is riding high," said pollster Bradley Honan, CEO and president of the firm. "Mamdani wins a majority of likely Democratic primary voters in a multi-candidate field, and no challenger comes close. His coalition rests on democratic socialists, very liberal voters, young voters, and Asian and Hispanic Democrats."

However, the poll identified softer support among moderate voters, homeowners, Jewish voters, Manhattan residents, older voters, and those with higher incomes or postgraduate degrees. Tisch appears to draw her strongest support from these demographic groups.

Mamdani also faces a challenge in securing Black voters, with 47% supporting his re-election and 42% undecided. In a scenario where Mamdani is not on the ballot, Tisch leads the field with 23% support, while 43% remain undecided and 19% prefer another candidate.

The Honan Strategy Group conducted the survey via text-to-web among 967 likely Democratic primary voters between October 2 and October 7. The poll has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.