NY AG Race Tightens Dramatically After Debate, Poll Shows

The race for New York Attorney General has significantly tightened, with Republican challenger Saritha Komatireddy now trailing incumbent Democrat Letitia James by only six points, a sharp decrease from previous polling. This shift is attributed to Komatireddy's strong performance in a recent debate, according to a Republican internal poll obtained by The Post.

The latest survey shows James leading Komatireddy 50.7% to 44.7%, with approximately 4% of voters remaining undecided. This contrasts with a Siena University poll last month that showed James with a 13-point advantage.

An analysis of the internal poll suggests that Komatireddy's Oct. 8 debate performance is largely responsible for closing the gap. The pollster noted that voters who watched the debate broke for Komatireddy by an 81% to 19% margin. Among the likely voters surveyed, one in five reported watching the debate.

Conversely, among those who did not view the debate, James held a more comfortable lead, 59% to 36%. The pollster stated that the undecided and soft voters who have seen Komatireddy present her case against James are shifting to her, while those who have not seen her debate continue to support the incumbent by default.

The poll, conducted by OnMessage Inc. from October 12-14 among 1,000 likely New York voters, has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Nate Silver, a polling analyst, has previously given OnMessage an A rating for accuracy.

Registered independent voters have shown a notable shift towards Komatireddy. In May, James held a three-point lead among independents, but she now trails Komatireddy by six points with this group, 49% to 43%. A significant portion of non-party-affiliated voters now view James unfavorably.

Komatireddy is also showing strength in key Republican-performing regions, leading James on Long Island (57% to 41%), in the downstate suburbs (54% to 44%), and upstate (50% to 44%). James maintains a substantial lead in New York City, where she leads 65% to 30%.

The survey indicates Komatireddy leads among men (53% to 43%) and voters aged 46 to 55 (51% to 46%). The poll did not specify James's lead among women.

The analysis also pointed out that James won her second term in 2022 with a nine-percentage-point margin against an underfunded Republican opponent. To secure an upset, Komatireddy will need to attract a portion of James's softer or persuadable supporters.

Komatireddy, a former federal prosecutor, previously handled high-profile cases involving international terrorism, cybercrime, narcotics trafficking, money laundering, and public corruption. James's tenure as Attorney General has been marked by numerous lawsuits challenging Trump administration policies and a high-profile investigation into former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

A spokesperson for James's campaign stated that Komatireddy would not protect New Yorkers from fraudsters or the federal government, suggesting her candidacy is backed by Trump. The campaign also asserted that Komatireddy would look the other way while Trump "sows chaos in New York."

Isabelle Daigle, Komatireddy's campaign manager, expressed confidence in the campaign's momentum following the debate. She noted a surge in interest and support from Democrats and independents across the state, attributing it to Komatireddy's approach to crime, homelessness, and fraud. Daigle acknowledged the need for continued effort in the final weeks of the campaign to secure individual votes.