Northwestern Wildcats Favored Heavily Against Ball State Cardinals
Despite a strong start to the season, the Wildcats are expected to cover a significant spread against a struggling Ball State team.
The Northwestern Wildcats are significant favorites in their upcoming matchup against the Ball State Cardinals, with oddsmakers setting a large point spread. This projection comes after a strong performance by Northwestern, which has surprised many in the early part of the 2026 college football season.
Northwestern recently opened their new stadium with a decisive 34-13 victory over Penn State, improving their overall record to 3-1 and their against-the-spread record to 4-0. This success is attributed in part to the effective collaboration between offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and quarterback Aidan Chiles, who have boosted the team's offensive potential.
While the Wildcats' offense has shown improvement, their defense has some areas for concern. Northwestern is allowing an average of 16.3 points per game against FBS opponents. This figure is somewhat misleading, as it's bolstered by strong red-zone defense and third-down performance. However, the team's yards per play allowed (5.6) indicates room for improvement if they aim for a truly exceptional season. These defensive vulnerabilities are unlikely to be severely tested against Ball State.
The Ball State Cardinals are ranked near the bottom of FBS in advanced statistical models, such as SP+ and Jeff Sagarin's rankings, placing them among the lowest-rated teams in Division I. Their offensive and defensive struggles have contributed to their current standing.
Despite the lopsided predictions, the betting line suggests a close contest in terms of the point spread, with Northwestern being a 37.5-point favorite. The question for bettors is whether Ball State can keep the score within that margin. One analysis suggests that Ball State can indeed cover the spread, citing Northwestern's potential for a letdown after significant victories and ahead of a notable matchup against Chiles' former school, Michigan State. This game is seen as a potential opportunity for Northwestern to focus on staying sharp and healthy rather than a blowout, given their upcoming schedule and the lack of another bye week until December.