Northern Ireland's leaders have been urged to urgently address the implications of a rapidly aging society, with a new report from the Commissioner for Older People warning that current planning is "for a population from a previous era." Siobhan Casey stated that "the ageing population is here, whether we are ready for it or not," highlighting that official projections indicate the number of people aged over 65 will surpass the number of children in Northern Ireland by next year.
Projections suggest that while Northern Ireland's overall population is expected to slightly decrease over the next 25 years, the number of residents aged over 65 is set to rise by nearly 45%. Casey described this demographic shift as a positive outcome of improved life expectancy but stressed that it necessitates "long-term planning and coordinated action" to manage the associated challenges.
The report emphasizes that the impacts of an aging population extend beyond healthcare, affecting housing, public transport, and workplaces. "An ageing population is not simply a health and social care issue. It will affect almost every aspect of life," the report states. "The reality is that Northern Ireland has yet to develop the coordinated and long-term approach needed to prepare for the scale of demographic change that lies ahead."
A key concern is the economic impact, particularly the "dependency ratio," which measures the number of children and retired individuals relative to the working-age population. Currently, for every 1,000 working-age people in Northern Ireland, there are 586 dependants. This figure is projected to increase to 614 per 1,000 by mid-2049. While the ratio of children to workers is expected to decline, the ratio of pensioners to workers is predicted to rise by nearly 36%.
This shift in dependency composition, with a greater proportion of the population being pensioners, places strain on the tax base needed to fund rising healthcare and pension costs. The report acknowledges that addressing this aspect may require national government intervention.
Casey described the approach taken by Stormont as piecemeal and "hugely disappointing." She noted that despite awareness among officials and elected representatives about demographic trends, the finalized Programme for Government document contained only a single reference to an "ageing population."
