North Korea is poised to send more soldiers to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, a move driven by substantial economic and geopolitical gains for Kim Jong Un's regime, according to analysis by the BBC.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that up to 50,000 North Korean troops could be deployed, revising an earlier estimate of 30,000. This potential influx follows the deployment of approximately 13,000 North Korean soldiers who fought with Russian forces in the latter part of 2024, reportedly suffering heavy casualties, with estimates ranging from 2,300 to 3,000 killed in action.
Despite the losses, the collaboration has proven lucrative for the isolated nation. Experts estimate that North Korea has earned nearly $10 billion from arms sales and troop deployment, a significant sum for an economy with an annual GDP of around $30 billion. This revenue provides essential food, oil, and hard currency, while also alleviating some of the impact of international sanctions.
Strategic Shift and Military Gains
The deployment marked a significant gamble for Kim Jong Un, representing the largest combat force North Korea has ever sent overseas since the 1970s. While initial engagements saw heavy North Korean losses, attributed to a lack of modern combat experience and equipment, soldiers reportedly adapted their tactics and learned lessons from drone warfare.
Ukrainian forces first encountered North Korean troops in November 2024, noting their aggressive tactics, often described as swarming assaults. However, communication issues with Russian allies and a lack of essential gear like body armor and winter clothing were also reported.
North Korea has not officially acknowledged its role or casualties in the conflict. However, the country has been lauded by Russian officials for its soldiers' perceived bravery. In April 2025, Kim Jong Un praised soldiers who chose suicide over capture, a sentiment echoed in memorial services in Pyongyang.
Shifting Geopolitical Alliances
Beyond the economic benefits, the deepening ties with Russia represent a crucial geopolitical shift for North Korea. This cooperation offers an alternative to its traditional reliance on China, enabling Pyongyang to engage in a more multipolar international system. The strengthening relationship was highlighted in September of the previous year when Kim Jong Un met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russia, facing significant manpower shortages in its protracted war in Ukraine, benefits from the influx of foreign fighters. Western and Ukrainian intelligence estimate Russia is losing approximately 6,000 more troops per month than it can recruit, making alliances with countries like North Korea a necessity.
The Fate of Captured Soldiers
Only two North Korean soldiers have been captured alive by Ukrainian forces. Both expressed a desire not to return to North Korea, fearing retribution against their families. They have indicated a preference for being sent to South Korea, an ally that has provided non-lethal aid to Ukraine and is willing to accept them.
Ukraine has stated it will adhere to international human rights obligations regarding the prisoners of war. The ongoing cooperation between Russia and North Korea is expected to continue as long as it remains economically and strategically advantageous for Pyongyang, a partnership that poses a growing concern for regional security.