North Dakota has been identified as the most dangerous state for driving during the Fourth of July holiday weekend, according to a recent analysis by MoneyGeek using federal crash data. The study found that North Dakota recorded 0.28 deaths per 100 million miles traveled during the July 4th period from 2020 to 2024. This rate is more than seven times higher than that of Rhode Island, which ranked as the safest state with 0.04 deaths per 100 million miles.
Over the five-year period studied, a total of 2,724 people were killed in U.S. crashes during the July 4th holiday. The analysis also highlighted that Independence Day is the second deadliest major holiday for drunk driving in the United States, surpassed only by New Year's Eve. During the past five years, 38% of drivers killed in crashes over the July 4th holiday period were legally drunk, representing the highest share of impaired drivers among major holidays.
Following North Dakota, the states identified as most dangerous for July 4th travel were Delaware, Nevada, New Mexico, and Montana. Researchers noted common characteristics among these high-risk states, including long, high-speed rural highways, less stringent traffic enforcement, lower population density, and longer travel times to trauma centers for serious crash victims.
In contrast, New York and New Jersey were found to be among the safest states. New York ranked 39th and New Jersey ranked 48th out of 51 states and Washington D.C., both performing better than the national average per mile driven. New York's impaired-driving share was 25%, and New Jersey's was 24%, which are among the lowest in the nation. Other safer states included Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Maryland, New Hampshire, and Virginia.
Despite the state-by-state variations, alcohol remains a significant risk factor nationwide during the holiday. Arkansas and South Carolina reported the highest percentage of drunk drivers involved in fatal crashes at 53%, followed by Iowa at 51%, and Oregon and Connecticut at 50% each.
Encouragingly, preliminary estimates from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) suggest a national decline in traffic fatalities. An estimated 36,640 people died in traffic crashes nationwide in 2025, a 6.7% decrease from 2024, marking the second-lowest fatality rate per mile driven on record. "The rural West and South still cluster at the top of the holiday ranking every year we run it," said Nathan Paulus, Head of Content and SEO at MoneyGeek. "But the national number keeps dropping: fewer people are dying on the roads."
The study also noted that while populous states like California, Texas, and Florida recorded the highest absolute numbers of fatalities due to higher travel volumes, they fell into the middle of the national rankings when adjusted for miles driven. California reported 284 fatalities, Texas 274, and Florida 209 during the study period.
Analysis indicates that the deadliest hours for travel are typically after fireworks conclude, with nearly a quarter of July 4th road deaths occurring between 9 p.m. and midnight as people head home. Drivers are advised to exercise caution during these late-night hours, especially if driving sober, as the likelihood of encountering impaired drivers increases.