Nithya Raman Leads Karen Bass in LA Mayor Race Prediction Market

Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman has established a significant lead over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass on the prediction market Polymarket as the two candidates approach their November 3 mayoral runoff election. As of Monday morning, Polymarket traders indicated Raman had approximately a 58% chance of winning, compared to Bass's 42%, representing a 16-percentage-point gap.

These figures on Polymarket are not traditional polls but rather reflect the market value traders place on contracts tied to each candidate's electoral success. The platform allows users to buy and sell contracts based on the outcomes of real-world events.

This shift in prediction market favorability follows a mid-September poll conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies in conjunction with the Los Angeles Times. That poll revealed Raman holding 39% support among likely voters, with Bass at 28%. A substantial 33% of respondents remained undecided.

Raman, who represents hillside and San Fernando Valley districts on the LA City Council, secured her spot in the runoff by finishing second in the June 2 primary. Mayor Bass led that initial contest with approximately 34% of the vote, while Raman garnered about 29%. The third-place finisher was former reality television personality Spencer Pratt.

Raman has garnered strong backing from younger voters and progressive organizations, including the Democratic Socialists of America's Los Angeles chapter. In contrast, Bass has faced voter discontent concerning key city issues such as homelessness, housing affordability, and the response to the 2025 wildfires. The September poll indicated Bass held a 63% unfavorable rating among likely voters.

The Nov. 3 runoff was necessitated by the fact that no candidate secured over 50% of the vote in the June primary. A significant question heading into the final election is the direction of voters who supported Pratt in the primary.