Nithya Raman Leads Karen Bass by 11 Points in LA Mayoral Race Poll

Nithya Raman has opened up an 11-point lead over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in the race for Los Angeles mayor, according to a new poll released by UC Berkeley and the LA Times. The survey indicates Raman has the support of 39% of likely voters, compared to 28% for Bass. However, a substantial 33% of voters remain undecided, leaving considerable room for the race to shift before the November 3 election.

The poll numbers represent a reversal from the June primary, where Bass secured first place with 34% of the vote and Raman came in second with 29%. Bass's campaign has dismissed the poll as an outlier, citing other surveys that suggest a tighter contest. "One outlier poll which got the June primary wrong isn’t reflective of the energy we see when talking to voters every day and what every other poll indicates — this is going to be a close race," Alex Stack, a spokesperson for Bass, told the California Post.

The UC Berkeley/LA Times survey, which polled 2,150 likely Los Angeles voters online between September 15 and September 20, has a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points. Despite the Bass campaign's assertion, the poll also revealed unfavorable views of the incumbent mayor, with 63% of likely voters viewing her negatively and only 28% viewing her favorably. Raman, while still polarizing, fares better with 40% favorable and 39% unfavorable opinions.

Bass's performance may be affected by voter dissatisfaction with her response to the 2025 Palisades fire. The poll found that 56% of likely voters rated her handling of the fire as poor or very poor, while only 14% considered it good or excellent.

Raman has recently gained endorsements from progressive organizations, including the Democratic Socialists of America's Los Angeles chapter. She is a longtime member of the DSA, which has made electing a democratic socialist mayor a significant goal.

The Los Angeles Police Protective League, which is supporting Bass, has criticized Raman's record on issues such as opposing parts of Los Angeles' anti-camping law and voting against some LAPD spending. The league recently launched an advertisement targeting Raman's stance on homeless encampments near schools.

An additional factor in the election is the large bloc of voters who supported reality TV star Spencer Pratt in the June primary. Pratt garnered 26% of the vote, but 63% of his supporters are currently undecided between Bass and Raman. Among those who have made a choice, 22% of Pratt's former supporters back Bass, and 16% back Raman.

The poll also highlighted a significant generational divide in voter support. Raman holds a strong lead among younger voters, with 66% support among those aged 18-29 and 64% among those aged 30-39. Bass's strongest support comes from voters aged 65 and older, where she leads Raman 41% to 21%.

Ballots are scheduled to be mailed by Los Angeles County on October 1, ahead of the November 3 election.