Campaigning for Nigeria's presidential election officially began Wednesday, with incumbent President Bola Tinubu seeking reelection against a fragmented opposition. Africa's most populous nation is heading to the polls amid escalating economic and security challenges, which have fueled public discontent with Tinubu's administration.
The presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for January 16, followed by gubernatorial elections on February 6.
Tinubu faces 18 opposition candidates, though analysts anticipate a primary contest involving three main contenders. These include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, a former state governor who garnered significant youth support in the 2023 race, where both previously challenged Tinubu. Historically, a divided opposition has tended to favor the incumbent party in Nigerian presidential elections.
Tinubu was elected in 2023 on promises to improve upon his predecessor's efforts to bring development to a nation struggling with insecurity, corruption, poverty, and hunger. However, critics argue that he has failed to meet these expectations and has become unpopular, particularly among younger voters. His administration's economic reforms, coupled with poor implementation, have led to soaring prices and what is described as the country's worst economic hardship in a generation.
Despite these challenges, analysts suggest that the split opposition could enhance Tinubu's chances of securing another term, mirroring the dynamics of the 2023 election. In that contest, Tinubu won with one of the lowest vote percentages recorded for an elected president, indicating his underlying unpopularity.
An attempt to form an opposition coalition in 2025 involving Abubakar, Obi, and others to challenge Tinubu collapsed before it could materialize.
"Voters are overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the administration’s handling of inflation, insecurity and unemployment but because the anti-incumbent vote is split, the president has the edge," said Ikemesit Effiong, a partner at SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based risk advisory firm.
Tinubu has also strengthened his political base through the defection of opposition figures, with 31 of Nigeria's 36 state governors now members of his ruling All Progressives Congress party. These defections have raised concerns about a potential one-party state, which the national government has denied.
In Nigeria, where state governors often wield significant grassroots influence and are sometimes accused of collaborating with local electoral officials to manipulate results, these party defections could benefit Tinubu.
Tinubu's administration initiated major economic reforms shortly after taking office in May 2023, including the removal of long-standing fuel subsidies and the unification of the naira's exchange rate, leading to a significant devaluation. While investors have welcomed these reforms, which the government states have stabilized the economy and increased revenue, they have also contributed to inflation. Persistent security issues, including mass kidnappings and killings, have also continued to plague the country, spreading to areas previously unaffected by the violence.
"No matter how bad things are, Tinubu will still win because they are not working together," said Juliet Onah, a resident in the capital of Abuja, referring to the opposition's failure to unite.