Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega announced that the country will no longer hold elections, signaling a definitive shift towards authoritarian rule. This declaration comes as the regime has steadily eroded political freedoms and civil society over the past two decades, a process that critics argue has been indirectly supported by continued economic ties with the United States.
Nicaragua's electoral processes have been widely considered non-competitive since 2021, when the government imprisoned all significant opposition candidates prior to the presidential elections. The current administration, led by Ortega and his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo, has been described as having extinguished political freedom more thoroughly than other regimes in the Western Hemisphere. Since 2018, the government has reportedly closed thousands of non-governmental organizations, universities, and charities, representing a significant portion of the country's civil society. The Catholic Church has also faced severe repression, with over 200 clergy and nuns exiled and ordinations banned in multiple dioceses.
One tactic employed by the Nicaraguan regime is manufactured statelessness, a method not widely utilized by other countries in the hemisphere. At least 452 Nicaraguans have reportedly had their nationality revoked by court order, with their assets seized and legal identities erased. Exiled critics face harassment and surveillance abroad, and at least one former regime critic was killed in Costa Rica.
Ortega's consolidation of power has been a gradual process, beginning even before his return to the presidency in 2006. In 1999, while out of power, he reportedly made a deal with a political rival to divide control of key state institutions. After regaining the presidency, the pace of institutional capture accelerated, with reelection being permitted in 2011, term limits abolished in 2014, and a new constitution in 2025 granting the Ortega-Murillo family absolute power.
While China has become a partner in developing Nicaragua's infrastructure and digital backbone, and Venezuela previously provided cheap oil, the United States remains a critical economic lifeline. Remittances to Nicaragua reached a record $6.2 billion last year, with approximately 80% originating from the U.S. The U.S. is also Nicaragua's largest trading partner, with nearly 40% of its exports bound for American markets. Through the CAFTA-DR trade agreement, Nicaraguan apparel and textiles enter the U.S. duty-free, a benefit that has been maintained despite some tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on other Nicaraguan goods.
This economic support is vital for the regime's survival, particularly given Nicaragua's status as the second-poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, with a per capita annual income around $2,600. Remittances constitute approximately 29% of the country's GDP, making its economy significantly reliant on these flows.
Sanctions imposed by Washington on dozens of Nicaraguan officials and companies, along with visa restrictions, have reportedly had little impact on the regime's behavior. Critics suggest that these measures fail to address the core economic lifelines sustaining the Ortega-Murillo administration. The approach has been contrasted with the Trump administration's more aggressive economic pressure campaign against Cuba, raising questions about the inconsistency of U.S. policy in the region when significant leverage exists.
Ortega's announcement about ending elections suggests a lack of concern regarding potential consequences from the United States, a sentiment his administration appears to feel is justified by the current economic relationship.