An analysis suggests that the National Health Service (NHS) could require 40 years to achieve its waiting list reduction target if current treatment rates persist. This projection raises concerns about extended waits for routine procedures such as hip and knee replacements.
The government has committed to ensuring 92 percent of patients begin hospital treatment within 18 weeks of a GP referral by March 2029. To meet this goal, the waiting list, currently at 7.27 million, would need to decrease to approximately 3.5 million, requiring a reduction of 114,000 patients per month.
However, official figures from NHS England indicate that the waiting list was reduced by an average of only 7,962 patients per month over the past year, despite significant funding. At this pace, it would take 40 years to reach the target of 3.5 million, far exceeding the remaining three years for the government to implement its plan.
Conservative shadow health secretary Stuart Andrew criticized the current approach, stating, "40 years to meet Labour's own NHS waiting list target shows just how far they are falling short." He added that "Labour are more interested in headline grabbing rather than bringing down waiting lists." Andrew asserted, "Patients need treatment and action now. Labour must stop pretending its failing waiting list plan is working and get a grip on the crisis in our NHS."
Earlier this year, the NHS reported clearing 110,000 people from waiting lists in March, leading then-health secretary Wes Streeting to announce the achievement of an interim target of treating 65 percent of patients within 18 weeks by the end of that month. This was reportedly achieved through temporary 'sprint' funding for hospitals to increase operations and bonuses for reducing patient lists by removing those who had died, moved to private care, or no longer required treatment.
Health experts had warned that these methods were unsustainable. Sarah Woolnough, chief executive of The King's Fund, noted that while the interim target was met in March, the subsequent increase of nearly 170,000 in waiting lists demonstrated the fragility of the progress. "The NHS continues to face record levels of demand, compounded by the ongoing series of heatwaves," Woolnough stated. She also suggested that the method used to achieve the 65 percent target might explain the trend, as 'sprint' funding has since diminished, reducing resources available to NHS trusts to cut waiting lists. "We warned at the time that the NHS could not sprint its way to a lasting solution and taking this approach to secure a sustainable fall in waiting lists would prove challenging," she added.
In June, the most recent month for which data is available, 65.8 percent of patients began hospital treatment within 18 weeks of referral. The number of patients waiting over a year for treatment saw a slight increase, from 104,734 to 105,711. However, the number of patients waiting 18 months or longer decreased from 1,144 to 1,099.
Separately, health officials reported a record 2.5 million A&E attendances in July, partly attributed to two heatwaves. During this period, 75.4 percent of A&E patients were seen within four hours, an increase from 75.0 percent in June. The number of patients experiencing a delay of over 12 hours between the decision to admit and actual admission fell to 47,438 from 49,466.
An average of 3,028 patients per day in July experienced corridor care, a situation where care is not provided in a clinically appropriate and safe setting with adequate privacy, access to amenities, and controlled noise levels. Health secretary Yvette Cooper acknowledged the "extraordinary efforts over this hugely challenging summer" by NHS staff and emphasized the need for the health service to plan for summer pressures similarly to winter pressures. She highlighted that despite extreme heat and record demand, over three-quarters of patients were seen within four hours in A&E, a record 2.65 million diagnostic tests were completed in July, and the waiting list fell for the first time since 2011 in June.
Dr. Ragit Varia, president-elect of the Society for Acute Medicine, commented, "From permawinter to permaheat, there is no longer a quiet season for the NHS." Liberal Democrat health spokesperson Helen Morgan stated, "Labour isn't working for our NHS."