NHS Leaders Criticize Labour Over Healthcare Waiting Times Report
A think tank report suggests patients will wait twice as long as promised for care, prompting accusations that the government is out of touch with reality.
NHS leaders have accused the Labour government of being "disconnected from reality" following a report that warns patients are likely to wait twice as long for care as ministers pledged. The government had made reducing long waiting times a central policy, vowing that 92% of patients would be treated within 18 weeks of referral by July 2029.
However, new analysis by the Health Foundation indicates that the average waiting time is more likely to reach 35 weeks, based on the progress observed over the past two years. The think tank projects that the total number of patients on waiting lists will decrease by only 500,000 between July 2024 and July 2029, reducing the list from 7.6 million to 7.1 million. This represents a net reduction of just 274 patients per day, despite significant additional taxpayer funding allocated to the health service.
Previous analyses suggested that the waiting list would need to fall to 4.4 million to meet the 18-week target previously championed by former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and former health secretary Wes Streeting. The Health Foundation noted that GP referrals increased by 1.5% in Labour's first year and by 3% in its second year. If referrals continue to grow at a 3% annual rate until July 2029, the rate at which patients are removed from waiting lists would need to more than double, from the current 2.2% to over 4.5% annually.
Researchers deem this target now unachievable and have urged the new prime minister, Andy Burnham, and health secretary, Yvette Cooper, to consider establishing a more realistic goal. Francesca Cavallaro of the Health Foundation stated that the prospects of meeting the 18-week target by the end of the current parliamentary term are receding. She suggested that a different, more achievable target might allow for progress in elective waiting times alongside other public health priorities like ambulance services and GP practices. Nevertheless, she emphasized the importance of not abandoning the overall goal of reducing elective waiting times, as millions of people continue to experience lengthy delays for their care.
Matthew Hopkins, acute director at the NHS Alliance, representing NHS leaders, offered a more critical assessment, stating "It is not going to happen." He highlighted the need for an honest discussion about the 18-week target, which has not been met for a decade. Given severe financial pressures and relentless demand, Hopkins argued that achieving the 92% target by the end of this parliament is unrealistic. He also pointed out that with a change in prime minister and health secretary, attention is shifting towards reforms in social care, maternity, early years, and frailty services, suggesting that not all priorities can be addressed simultaneously.
Local NHS leaders are acutely aware of the distress caused by long waits for planned care and are ready to build on progress. However, Hopkins cautioned that when policy becomes detached from operational realities, patients ultimately suffer. He called for transparency regarding achievable outcomes given available resources.
Public opinion polls indicate that improving waiting times for A&E (36%) and making GP appointments more accessible (35%) are top priorities for the public. Reducing NHS staff departures by improving working conditions (30%) followed, with improving waiting times for routine hospital services also a priority for 28% of respondents. The report also notes that resident doctors' strikes may have reduced elective activity, hindering progress in clearing waiting lists.
Tim Lane, president of the Royal College of Surgeons, stated that at the current pace, no region is on track to meet the 18-week standard by 2029. His analysis also shows a five-month consecutive rise in patients waiting over a year for treatment. He stressed that individuals facing these long waits endure pain, anxiety, and deteriorating health, impacting their ability to work and care for families.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson affirmed the government's commitment to cutting NHS waiting times and achieving the 92% target. They reported that nearly 300,000 fewer people are waiting for treatment compared to July 2024 and that more patients are being seen within 18 weeks than last year. The department highlighted ongoing investments in the NHS estate, surgical hubs, diagnostic activity, and technology to accelerate diagnosis and treatment. The spokesperson expressed determination to maintain progress through investment, reform, and the efforts of NHS staff.
