NFL Week 5 Betting Trends: Purdy, Allen Emerge as MVP Favorites, New DROY Leader
As the NFL season progresses, betting markets show a tightening MVP race and a surprising favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season has concluded, revealing emerging betting trends and storylines. The race for Most Valuable Player appears to be narrowing to a two-player contest, while a rookie linebacker has become the frontrunner for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
MVP Race Heats Up
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen remains the slight favorite for MVP following his significant performance in a 37-34 overtime victory against the Rams. Allen recorded 121 rushing yards in the game. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers kept his team undefeated with a comeback win over Seattle. Purdy's odds have dramatically improved from an opening of +1800 to +300 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Allen's odds have shortened from +600 to +250. While Patrick Mahomes (+600) and Trevor Lawrence (+900) are still in contention, the MVP award is shaping up to be a two-way competition through the first five weeks.
Surprising Super Bowl Contenders
Despite losing three of their first five games, including a close contest against the Bills, the Los Angeles Rams are still considered a co-favorite for the Super Bowl. Oddsmakers have them alongside the undefeated 49ers, whose preseason odds of +1900 have shifted to +700. The Rams' odds have slipped from +500 entering the season. The Buffalo Bills are close behind the co-favorites at +750, with the Baltimore Ravens (+800) being the only other team with odds better than 10/1.
Rookie Defender Emerges
New York Jets linebacker David Bailey, the No. 2 overall pick, has become the favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year after a standout performance against Cleveland, where he recorded three sacks. This breakout effort has moved Bailey's odds from +1000 to +200, surpassing Giants rookie Arvell Reese (+300). Bailey now leads all rookies with five sacks for the season.
Notable Betting Setbacks
Week 5 also saw significant "bad beats" for NFL bettors. In the Bengals' 31-24 win over the Dolphins, a missed extra point by Miami's Riley Patterson with under a minute remaining resulted in a win for Bengals -6.5 bettors and a loss for Miami +6.5 backers.
Washington Commanders bettors also faced a difficult outcome in their game against the Giants. The Commanders, who were 3.5-point favorites, squandered a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter and a potential game-winning field goal opportunity in overtime. The game concluded in a 27-27 tie, leaving Washington spread bettors with no return.